A growing chorus of scientists is questioning the United States National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) high-profile effort to develop a universal flu vaccine, after it was revealed that the $500 million project relies on older, 20th-century vaccine technology rather than cutting-edge approaches. The controversy, which centers around the scientific and strategic direction of one of the world’s most ambitious attempts to eliminate seasonal influenza, has raised broader concerns about how public health investments are prioritized and the pace of innovation in vaccine development. For Thailand, where seasonal influenza takes a persistent toll each year, the debate underscores the complexities of global vaccine progress and the quest for more effective protection against a virus that continues to mutate and evade immunity.
Universal flu vaccines represent a “holy grail” for infectious disease experts. Unlike annual shots, which must be re-formulated to match evolving flu strains, a universal vaccine could theoretically provide broad, long-lasting protection against many—or even all—types of influenza. This could save millions of lives globally and end the near-constant rush to predict next season’s dominant strains. More than 150,000 Thais are hospitalized and over 1,000 die annually from flu complications, often among vulnerable populations such as the elderly, young children, and people with chronic conditions (WHO SEARO).
The latest controversy centers on the NIH’s choice to channel half a billion dollars into a major universal flu vaccine effort that, according to multiple scientists cited in Stat News, relies on “old-school” protein-based approaches—methods dating back to the 1940s—rather than incorporating the newer technologies such as mRNA or viral vector platforms that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic. These methods, which helped deliver highly effective COVID-19 vaccines at unreal pace, can be tweaked quickly to respond to mutations and potentially offer broader coverage.
Researchers from leading US and global institutions expressed frustration that the NIH appears to be doubling down on what they view as a “conservative, risk-averse” approach, potentially missing out on transformative scientific advances. An unnamed senior immunologist told Stat News: “It’s a missed opportunity to turbocharge the field with the best the 21st century has to offer. The world expects more from us after what we saw with COVID-19 vaccines.” Other experts warn that investment decisions like this can “lock in” older technologies, diverting resources away from platforms that might ultimately prove more nimble, durable, and scalable in the face of an ever-changing virus.
The debate is not merely academic. In Southeast Asia, where tropical climates allow influenza to circulate year-round, vaccination strategies have been hampered by vaccine mismatches, supply shortages, and low public uptake. Public health officials from Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health point out that reliance on traditional vaccine technologies can lead to delays, leaving populations vulnerable when predictions about flu strains prove incorrect. “Every year, we have to play catch-up. If a universal vaccine really arrives, it would transform preventative care for millions of Thais,” said a representative from the Department of Disease Control.
Historically, Thailand has supported local flu vaccine production and participated in clinical trials for newer platforms (Bangkok Post). Yet financial constraints and the need for WHO prequalification often limit the deployment of the most innovative solutions. In the years since COVID-19, there has been growing public recognition of mRNA vaccines and their potential applications beyond the pandemic—a shift echoed by international scientific communities.
Critics of the NIH project argue that now is a crucial moment to apply pandemic-era lessons to other infectious threats. “The COVID-19 response taught us that we can break new ground rapidly, with international collaboration and the best science available,” said a vaccine policy expert from a regional World Health Organization office. “It would be unfortunate if the next leap forward in influenza prevention is hampered by outdated assumptions and bureaucratic inertia.”
Others urge caution, noting that while mRNA and other advanced platforms are promising, their long-term safety and efficacy in influenza—especially across diverse, at-risk populations—are still being studied. “Science must balance innovation with what is proven and reliable, especially when billions of people rely on flu vaccines each season,” said a Thai university virologist.
For Thailand, the outcome of the NIH debate will likely influence domestic vaccine strategies and international procurement for years to come. If the universal flu vaccine project falls short of expectations, Thai officials may need to intensify their own research partnerships and seek flexible procurement agreements to access next-generation vaccines as they become available. There is also growing advocacy for increased public education around the value of flu vaccination—to combat both complacency and vaccine hesitancy, which have historically limited coverage in many Thai provinces (Ministry of Public Health, Thailand).
As the global health community watches the NIH’s progress, the broader question remains: how can countries like Thailand ensure that the benefits of modern vaccine science reach their populations, regardless of developments in the US or Europe? Some experts argue that regional collaborations, technology transfer, and local manufacturing capacity will be key. Others stress the need for government investment in research that addresses the unique patterns of disease circulation and population health in tropical Asia.
In the near term, Thai readers are advised to stay up-to-date with seasonal flu shot recommendations, especially for vulnerable groups such as pregnant women, the elderly, and children under five. Continuing to follow hygiene, mask use, and avoiding crowded places during peak flu months remain important strategies while the quest for a universal vaccine continues. Careful monitoring of international vaccine research—and advocating for greater involvement in trials and regulatory discussions—will help ensure Thailand is prepared to benefit from the next breakthrough, whatever shape it takes.
For further reading, see Stat News: Scientists question NIH project’s use of 20th century technology to make a universal flu vaccine, WHO SEARO, and Bangkok Post on vaccine development.