A new wave of social science research suggests that demographic inertia among older consumers, the pitfalls of chasing trendy college majors, and even political gerrymandering are subtly but powerfully influencing business and education landscapes worldwide, with clear implications for Thailand. Recent studies highlighted in a Boston Globe summary raise concerns about Thailand’s entrepreneurial future, university graduates’ career paths, and the role of psychological traits in shaping academic debates.
Thailand, like many developed economies, is fast becoming a “super-aged” society. By 2024, over 20% of Thais were aged 60 or older, a proportion forecast to climb further in the coming decades World Bank. According to a May 2025 National Bureau of Economic Research report by University of Pennsylvania economists, this shift has much more than just social policy implications—it may also chill the prospects for new businesses. Their findings: older consumers are less willing to try new brands and products, leading to fewer startups and less competition in markets with aging customer bases (Bornstein, G., “Entry and Profits in an Aging Economy: The Role of Consumer Inertia,” NBER, May 2025).
This inertia, the research suggests, enables established companies to maintain higher profits (often at the expense of consumer choice and fair prices), as older buyers stick with familiar products and are slower to adopt innovations. In Thailand, similar trends are visible in sectors ranging from retail to consumer electronics. Thai marketing experts at leading business schools note, for example, that attempts to woo elderly Thais to switch from traditional products—be it in food, health supplements, or digital services—often meet steep resistance. This could hamper young entrepreneurs eager to introduce new services, echoing the NBER study’s findings of fewer startups in product categories with an older client base.
For aspiring Thai business founders, particularly those outside the major urban centers where population aging is most advanced, these patterns signal the need to either target younger, more adaptable consumers, or work creatively to overcome brand loyalty entrenched over decades. As one senior lecturer in economics at a leading Bangkok university observed in a 2024 interview, “To break through with older Thai customers, new businesses must build trust slowly with community engagement, not just marketing hype.”
The research also ties into broader concerns about competition and growth across the ASEAN region. Stagnant startup activity has led policymakers at Thailand’s Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council to revisit support mechanisms for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), even advocating for targeted innovation grants focused on products for elderly consumers—a strategy endorsed by both Thai and international analysts (Bangkok Post).
Another major thread in the debate examines the risks of students chasing “superstar” fields—such as computer science—simply because they appear lucrative or trendy. A forthcoming paper in the Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics (Choi, D. et al., “Superstar Firms and College Major Choice”) highlights that while industries like tech might see a surge in students majoring in relevant fields, the hiring boom is often illusory. The study finds that entry-level salaries in these hot industries can actually fall as student supply overshoots demand. More troubling, many graduates end up working outside their chosen fields, with lower pay and job satisfaction.
This raises a critical point for Thailand, where the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation has in recent years aggressively promoted STEM and computer science education as a cornerstone for national competitiveness (Ministry of Higher Education). University entrance exam data from 2025 show Cs-related major applications jumping more than 25% since 2020, reflecting trends seen in the US, China, and elsewhere. But these new findings suggest that the “tech rush” may leave many graduates disillusioned.
According to a prominent education economist at a well-known Thai university, “We see more and more Thai engineering and computer science grads taking jobs in unrelated fields, or moving abroad for work. The mismatch creates disappointment for families who invested heavily in tuition and puts pressure on universities to rethink curricula.”
These concerns are corroborated by a 2023 survey from the National Statistical Office of Thailand, which found that only 41% of computer science graduates were working in their field within two years of graduation, with many citing lack of suitable positions or lower-than-expected salaries. This pattern, echoed in the global research, suggests that both students and policymakers need a more nuanced understanding of the long-term career outcomes attached to “hot” majors (NSO Thailand).
The risks of educational “herd behaviour” have deep cultural resonance in Thailand, where university major choice is often shaped by family expectations and trends influenced by Western media. There’s a long-standing saying among Thai parents: “เรียนดี งานดี” (“study well, get a good job”), but in today’s rapidly shifting job market, this formula is increasingly complex. Education policy planners are therefore being encouraged to provide more comprehensive career guidance and real labour market data to students.
A third, less visible factor the research underscores is political stability—on company performance. A May 2025 article in the Journal of Law and Economics (Artés, J. et al., “The Value of Political Geography: Evidence From the Redistricting of Firms”) found that firms headquartered in politically “safe” districts fare better than those in “swing” districts subject to regular redistricting. This apparently allows CEOs to cultivate long-term ties with less distracted political representatives.
While US-based, the findings are not entirely foreign to Thai contexts. Political scientist interviews have noted similar dynamics at play in Thailand’s provincial business scene, where entrenched local ties often enable certain family-run firms or conglomerates to maintain close relationships with local MPs, helping them weather political upheaval. For foreign investors eyeing Thailand’s regions, understanding these subtle, district-level dynamics is crucial for navigating regulatory changes.
Perhaps the most philosophical of the new research studies, a forthcoming article in Nature Human Behaviour (Sulik, J. et al., “Differences in Psychologists’ Cognitive Traits Are Associated with Scientific Divides”) investigates “cognitive divides” among academics themselves. The study demonstrates that psychologists’ own tolerance of ambiguity powerfully shapes how they interpret data and even which explanations for human behaviour they consider plausible. Specifically, those with higher ambiguity tolerance favoured nuanced, social-structural explanations, while others gravitated towards evolutionary or biological models.
Why does this meta-scientific finding matter for Thai society? In recent years, Thailand’s public debates—from health care policy to economic inequality to education reform—have revealed deep, sometimes heated divides over what kind of evidence “counts” and whose expertise should be trusted. The research cautions that even respected Thai experts and policymakers are not immune to personal bias: the impact of personal psychology on public intellectual debate could influence which reforms are pursued, and how evidence is framed in media and government.
Taken together, these new findings offer several actionable recommendations for Thai readers:
- Entrepreneurs and SME owners should thoroughly research their target demographics, especially the rising elderly market, and develop outreach approaches rooted in long-term, trust-driven engagement rather than expecting quick conversions.
- Students and parents should look beyond headlines about “booming” industries, and seek candid data on actual employment outcomes—while universities must provide better, more realistic guidance about shifting labour market trends.
- Policymakers need to factor demographic inertia into business support policies, perhaps boosting grants or incubation schemes for sectors that engage, rather than bypass, older Thais.
- Thailand’s vibrant business and policy community can benefit from self-awareness about the role of personal bias in debate—promoting openness, evidence-based discussion, and humility in the face of uncertainty.
As Thailand’s economy and society continue to evolve in the face of rapid aging, globalisation, and economic restructuring, understanding these subtle but deep forces is more critical than ever. Foresight, adaptability, and a willingness to challenge old assumptions will be central to building an inclusive, dynamic, and resilient Thai future.
Sources:
- Boston Globe: Social Studies: Two things that are bad for business; rethinking a computer science major
- World Bank: Thailand Overview
- Bangkok Post: Ageing society weighs on business dynamism
- Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (Thailand)
- Thailand National Statistical Office
- NBER: Entry and Profits in an Aging Economy: The Role of Consumer Inertia
- [Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics: Superstar Firms and College Major Choice] (forthcoming)
- Journal of Law and Economics: The Value of Political Geography: Evidence From the Redistricting of Firms
- [Nature Human Behaviour: Differences in Psychologists’ Cognitive Traits Are Associated with Scientific Divides] (forthcoming)