A new UNFPA briefing warns of an unprecedented global drop in fertility rates, with immediate implications for Thailand’s economy, workforce, and social systems. The report notes that hundreds of millions of people are having fewer children than they want, driven largely by economic pressures and evolving social norms. For Thailand, the findings validate local experiences and call for urgent, cross-sector policy action.
The UNFPA cross-country survey polled 14,000 people across 14 countries, including Thailand. It found that almost one in five respondents either have not had the number of children they desire or do not expect to. The main barriers are financial rather than health or biology. About 39% cited prohibitive costs, with responses ranging from 58% in South Korea to 19% in Sweden. A frontline worker in Mumbai was highlighted in coverage by major outlets, illustrating how costs such as schooling, transport, and healthcare can deter family growth even in urban settings.
Thailand’s demographic story has evolved quickly. Once focused on reducing population growth, the country now faces population contraction. The total fertility rate declined from six children per woman in the 1970s to about 1.08 in 2022, well below the replacement level of 2.1. Government projections warn that if trends continue, Thailand could drop from about 66 million people today to roughly 33 million over six decades. The working-age population is shrinking, and the 65-plus cohort is set to more than double, placing greater demands on health care, pensions, and elder support.
According to the UNFPA commentary, the so-called fertility crisis reflects a growing gap between people’s family desires and their ability to realize them. The agency emphasizes reproductive autonomy and well-being, moving away from coercive population-control narratives toward life-cycle policies that address economic and social barriers.
Thai authorities acknowledge these dynamics and point to unique national drivers. Thailand’s family planning success in the 1970s and 1980s is now complemented—and complicated—by urban living costs, high childcare and education expenses, and shifting gender and career expectations. An official from the health sector notes that marriage and childbearing are no longer the sole life‑course priorities for many women, a theme echoed in the ICPD30 report.
The regional context matters. Several Asian economies—China, Japan, South Korea, and others—are also navigating aging populations and slower birth rates. The core challenge is structural: high living costs, uneven access to affordable childcare, work‑life imbalance, and persistent gender norms that influence family formation.
In Thailand, infertility or difficulty conceiving was reported by about 19% of respondents—above the global average of 12%. The persistent pressures of urban life and demanding work schedules were frequently cited as factors that hinder family formation. One respondent described the fatigue and guilt of long hours and commutes that leave little time for children.
Policy implications point to a holistic, coordinated approach across government sectors. Thailand’s current strategy emphasizes a life-cycle framework to support health, education, employment, and eldercare. Proposals under discussion include expanding child subsidies, bolstering early education, improving parental leave, and ensuring access to affordable fertility services for those who need them. The aim is to align policy with broader social goals, rather than pursuing narrow population targets.
Experts caution against reactionary measures that could backfire. Rather than coercive or punitive policies, they advocate data-driven, rights-based strategies that promote inclusion and equal opportunity for all families. A prominent academic in Bangkok underscored the need to integrate health, education, labor, and social protection systems to serve diverse populations, including people with disabilities and those in rural areas.
Thailand’s reforms reflect this philosophy. The Ministry of Social Development and Human Security has pursued inclusive programs that combine economic opportunity with family support, while health promoters and community groups champion local, community-driven responses. Strengthening data infrastructure and safeguarding gender equality remain central to effective policy design.
Measuring impact will require time, transparency, and robust analytics. Innovations in digital data collection, targeted support for marginalized groups, and work-family policy reforms are among the tools to monitor. Regional experiments in fertility support—from neighboring economies to Korea—provide comparative insight but must be adapted to Thailand’s social and economic context.
Culturally, family norms and gender roles continue to shape choices. Thailand’s ongoing progress toward gender equality and inclusive family structures must be part of the policy conversation. While new legislation on marriage equality marks progress, social attitudes toward parenting and women’s workforce participation still influence outcomes.
The key takeaway is clear: sustainable solutions require enabling people to choose and pursue family plans that fit their lives. Policies should promote gender equality, secure meaningful job opportunities for youth, reduce work‑life stress, and destigmatize diverse family forms. Without action, aging demographics could strain social safety nets, pensions, and health systems, with implications for families and communities across the country.
Thailand has significant strengths to build on, including strong reproductive health programs, universal health coverage, and progress toward gender equity. Experts recommend upskilling older workers, promoting flexible work arrangements, and advancing “silver economy” initiatives to keep the economy vibrant as the population ages. Digital inclusion and lifelong learning will be essential in a future where multigenerational households are common and opportunities must be accessible to all.
Looking ahead, the most effective responses will be those that expand people’s choices, ensure inclusive access to services, and support living standards—regardless of demographic trends. The ICPD tenets of prioritizing people’s rights, dignity, and well-being remain central to resilient development. Thailand’s life-cycle approach offers a constructive blueprint, but it requires sustained political will, high-quality data, and cross-sector collaboration.
Practical takeaways for Thai readers:
- Stay informed about reproductive rights and family planning options.
- Support community-led efforts that aid the elderly and young families.
- Advocate for gender-balanced workplace and government policies.
- Engage in policy discussions and access available services to plan for diverse futures.