A striking new wave of research shows worldwide fertility is falling, with millions unable to have the number of children they want. The barriers are largely economic and social rather than a shift in desires. A major survey by UNFPA and other studies indicate that costs of parenting, job insecurity, limited welfare, climate anxiety, and changing cultural priorities are driving birth rates to record lows, including in Thailand.
Thailand’s situation is particularly urgent. Official data for 2024 show annual births dipping below 500,000 for the first time in decades, while the total fertility rate has fallen to 1.0—the lowest in Southeast Asia and lower than Japan’s. Demographers warn that without policy change, the population could shrink from about 66 million to around 40 million in the coming half-century, with significant impacts on the economy and public services.
In March 2025, UNFPA released its State of the World Population report, drawing on surveys across 14 countries that amount to a third of the global population. Among 14,000 respondents, one in five said they would have fewer children than they hoped for. Financial constraints emerged as the top barrier, with 39% of respondents citing cost reasons overall and up to 58% in some settings. Infertility was less frequently named but still relevant, rising to 19% in Thailand, reflecting both medical realities and openness about reproductive challenges.
For many would-be parents in Thailand, the calculus is difficult. The rising costs of education and housing, limited affordable childcare, and relatively short maternity leave—just 98 days, far below international best practices—are weighed against the dream of a larger family. A respondent from Latin America captured the dilemma: affordable housing and the desire to avoid hardship during uncertain times weigh heavily against expanding a family.
Experts from Thailand’s leading public research institute describe the country as entering an ultra-low fertility phase, akin to Japan and South Korea. This shift follows decades of strong birth-control campaigns that successfully reduced births, highlighting how policy history shapes today’s choices.
Policy responses are under scrutiny. The government has launched reproductive health campaigns and programs to support couples facing fertility challenges, but analysts emphasize that financial incentives alone are unlikely to move the needle without broader reforms. Integrated approaches—stronger parental leave, affordable housing, affordable childcare, health insurance, and flexible workplaces—are essential to sustaining meaningful changes.
A senior Thai population expert notes that simply increasing baby bonuses may not be enough. Employers can play a bigger role by offering on-site childcare and longer paid leave, while public investment in education and housing could reduce major barriers to parenthood. Without such comprehensive reforms, the current incentives may raise hopes but fail to alter birth trends in a lasting way.
Thailand also reports relatively high infertility as a reason for smaller families—about 19% versus 12% globally—pointing to delayed childbearing and the need for accessible fertility services. Public health efforts to support couples should be part of a broader strategy addressing economic and social pressures.
Cultural dynamics are shifting. Younger Thais often prioritize career development and personal fulfillment over marriage and family life, a pattern mirrored across Asia. Yet the desire for children persists globally, underscoring the complexity of the issue.
For policymakers, the lesson from international experience is clear: sustainable fertility support requires a holistic approach. Expanding housing access, creating stable jobs, providing paid parental leave, improving childcare, and ensuring reproductive health services can help, but these need time and cross-sector collaboration. European and Southeast Asian experiences show that only a long-term, integrated strategy can influence fertility behavior.
Looking ahead, Thailand faces tough choices about balancing personal freedom with population stability. Estimates suggest up to six in ten eligible Thais might consider parenthood if supported by appropriate policies, but results would unfold over generations. Immediate actions that could help include stronger workplace family supports, expanded government investment in childcare and housing, and community dialogue about family values within modern Thai society. For individuals planning a family, early conversations with healthcare providers about fertility and work-life planning remain prudent. The overarching goal is to enable Thai families to form the futures they desire while maintaining social and economic resilience.