A dramatic new wave of research suggests global fertility rates are in unprecedented decline, with millions of people around the world struggling to have the number of children they desire—often not because of changing attitudes, but because of mounting social and economic obstacles. Recent studies—including a large survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)—show that in both high- and middle-income countries, including Thailand, the costs of parenthood, job insecurity, insufficient welfare support, environmental anxieties, and evolving cultural priorities are driving birth rates to historic lows Time, BBC, Al Jazeera.
The relevance of this trend to Thai society is especially acute. In 2024, official data revealed Thailand’s annual births fell below 500,000 for the first time in nearly eight decades, while its total fertility rate (TFR) has crashed to 1.0—the lowest in Southeast Asia and now lower than Japan’s. Alarmingly, at this pace, Thai demographers estimate the population may shrink from nearly 66 million to about 40 million over the next half-century, with major implications for economic growth, social welfare, and the country’s age structure Khaosod English.
In March 2025, the UNFPA released its State of the World Population report based on what is among the broadest cross-country surveys to date about fertility intentions and realities. The study polled 14,000 people in 14 countries representing a third of the global population—including Thailand, South Korea, Brazil, India, Germany, Mexico, and the United States. A striking revelation: one in five respondents said they had not, or would not, have as many children as they hoped for. Financial limitations were the primary barrier, cited by 39% overall and as high as 58% in Korea. Only 12% named infertility as a principal reason for having fewer children, though that figure rose to 19% in Thailand—a reflection of both evolving medical realities and cultural openness to discussing reproductive challenges BBC, Al Jazeera.
For many would-be parents, the calculation is daunting—especially in today’s Thailand. Education expenses, the cost of housing in metropolitan areas, the limited range of affordable childcare, and short maternity leave (just 98 days, among the lowest in ASEAN, compared with the International Labour Organization’s 18-week standard)—all feature heavily in decisions to delay or avoid having children. As one surveyed respondent from Mexico put it: “It is impossible to buy or have affordable rent in my city. I also would not like to give birth to a child in war times and worsened planetary conditions if that means the baby would suffer because of it” Time.
Experts from Mahidol University’s Institute for Population and Social Research underline that Thailand is now an “ultra-low fertility” country, in the same league as Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. The crucial difference: as recently as the 1970s, Thailand’s government promoted vigorous birth control campaigns, warning “If you have more children, you will become poorer.” These efforts succeeded dramatically, reducing annual births from about 1,000,000 to under half a million in just a few decades VOA.
Today, as the demographic tide turns, Thailand faces a dilemma: how to encourage higher birth rates without resorting to coercive or ineffective tactics. The question is complicated by shifting generational values. Younger Thais, particularly those in their twenties and thirties, often prioritize personal fulfillment and career development over starting a family. Rising levels of female education and labor force participation have further contributed to delayed marriage and smaller families VOA.
Still, the desire for children has not vanished. The UNFPA survey found a global norm: most people want two or more children if given the choice and means. However, the decision to start or expand a family now intersects with a web of practical and emotional hurdles. Job insecurity and precarious work, a heavy mental load of balancing work and childcare, limited employer support, unaffordable housing, as well as fears about climate change, conflict, and the future—all figure heavily in calculations about whether and when to have children.
Thailand’s unique situation is made more urgent by comparative data. According to the Department of Provincial Administration, 462,240 births were recorded in 2024, but deaths exceeded that at 571,646. This inversion of the traditional population pyramid is rare outside wealthy developed nations. The workforce could shrink from 37.2 million to 22.8 million over the next half-century, driving up the ratio of pensioners to adults of working age, straining health and social security systems, and threatening the country’s long-term economic stability Khaosod English.
Policymakers are actively grappling with these challenges. The Ministry of Public Health’s recent “Give Birth, Great World” campaign and earlier “Having Children for the Nation” initiative offer medical assistance for those facing reproductive difficulties and seek to shift ingrained attitudes against larger families. However, experts warn that policies focused solely on cash “baby bonuses” or basic financial incentives will likely have only marginal effects unless matched by sweeping reforms in parental leave, affordable housing, accessible childcare, health insurance, and workplace flexibility VOA.
“As we see from lessons in developed countries, increasing the birth rate isn’t simple—it requires effort in many dimensions of social welfare,” explained a population researcher at Mahidol University. For example, employers could provide on-site daycare or longer paid leave to better support working families. Government intervention in education and housing costs would further remove key barriers for Thais considering parenthood. Without such reforms, the current incentives may inspire hope, but not result in a meaningful shift in birth trends.
A notable aspect of Thailand’s situation is the high reporting of infertility as a reason for having fewer children compared to global averages—19% versus 12%. This number may reflect both the delayed age at first childbirth and the shortage of affordable, accessible fertility services. The Public Health Ministry’s focus on supporting couples facing reproductive challenges is essential, but must be part of a broader suite of measures tackling economic and social pressures.
Cultural dynamics are also in flux. Gen Y Thais—those roughly aged 21–37—tend to emphasize career growth, self-realization, and urban lifestyles over marriage and child-rearing. “Compared to Gen X, who prioritized family, this generation prioritizes themselves and their careers,” noted an economist from Thammasat University. This generational realignment is reflected in similar trends across Asia’s advanced economies, such as Japan and South Korea, where governmental pro-natalist campaigns have so far yielded mixed results.
The UNFPA cautions against both panic and simplistic solutions. “Right now, what we’re seeing is a lot of rhetoric of catastrophe, either overpopulation or shrinking population, which leads to this kind of exaggerated response, and sometimes a manipulative response,” said the agency’s executive director in a note to the press. UNFPA advocates for policies that maximize reproductive agency—the ability for people to have the number of children they desire, when and with whom they choose—by changing social conditions rather than dictating personal decisions BBC.
Experts agree: policies that expand parenthood options—investments in housing, secure employment, paid parental leave, high-quality childcare, and access to comprehensive reproductive health—are most promising. However, reform comes at a cost, requiring sustained government investment and public-private partnership. Historical experience from Europe and parts of Southeast Asia suggests that only a long-term, holistic approach can meaningfully shift fertility behavior Al Jazeera.
Looking forward, Thailand faces hard choices—how to prevent a dramatic demographic decline while respecting individual freedoms and evolving social norms. While targeted policies could prompt up to 60% of fertility-capable Thais to consider starting families, according to Mahidol University estimates, the timeline for results is generational. Any child conceived today will only reach working age in 15–20 years, so the window for reversing demographic decline is closing fast Khaosod English.
For Thai readers, practical recommendations include advocating for expanded parental support in the workplace, backing government investment in childcare and housing, and participating in community dialogues about the value of family within contemporary Thai society. For those considering parenthood, consulting healthcare providers early about fertility and planning for work-life balance remains advisable. Above all, the collective challenge lies in ensuring future generations can form the families they desire—not just the families they can afford.