Leisure travel is set to become a $15 trillion powerhouse by 2040, according to a landmark study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), signaling an era of unprecedented opportunity—and challenge—for airlines, hotels, and tour operators worldwide. The report forecasts that the sector will triple in value from $5 trillion in 2024, driven by shifting demographics, fresh travel motivations, and groundbreaking use of digital technology in planning and experiences. These profound shifts carry particularly significant ramifications for Thailand, an established tourism hub in Asia primed to benefit—and compete—in this new global travel order.
For Thai readers and industry stakeholders, the story matters on several levels. Tourism has long been Thailand’s economic backbone, contributing more than 20% to GDP during pre-pandemic highs and remaining central to local livelihoods and development strategies (Tourism Authority of Thailand). However, the familiar contours of travel—the reliance on international arrivals, package tours, and iconic beach destinations—are evolving rapidly. The next 15 years promise a different landscape, one where domestic and regional trips surge, travelers’ preferences fragment, and technology redefines every step from inspiration to itinerary.
Drawing on a decade-long global review of leisure travel behaviors and their own “Traveler of the Future” survey across 11 key markets, BCG’s report identifies the new pillars underpinning growth. At the core, an expanding middle class in emerging economies—especially in Asia—fuels demand for both domestic and outbound explorations. In 2024, the bulk of leisure travel spending came from local getaways: approximately $4.1 trillion, or almost 13 billion overnight stays. By 2040, this figure is projected to soar to $11.7 trillion and nearly 18 billion overnights. Regional trips—such as within Southeast Asia—are expected to triple in value to more than $2 trillion, while international leisure travel will grow more than threefold to $1.4 trillion.
Thailand, as a regional transit and destination hub, stands at the crossroads of these flows. The BCG research underscores that “domestic trips compose the bulk of leisure travel, especially in emerging markets.” As many Thais become more affluent and digitally connected, the appetite for local experiences—wellness, culinary, eco, and cultural tourism—is set to intensify, mirroring trends observed in China, India, and Vietnam. “Travelers are seeking destinations that offer more curated, purpose-driven experiences,” the BCG authors note, with wellness retreats, spiritual journeys, and food adventures gaining ground at the expense of traditional mass-market tours.
Shifts in traveler demographics are equally striking. In contrast to the era dominated by Western or Japanese long-haul tourists, the new growth is regional and youthful. Millennials and Gen-Zers are emerging as the most influential cohorts, especially in countries like China and India. In BCG’s survey, the proportion of “younger generations planning to increase the number of trips is 4 to 26 percentage points higher than that of older generations.” These travelers are “mobile-savvy, socially conscious, and highly engaged online”—traits Thai tourism operators must understand deeply to adapt their offerings, marketing, and service models.
Further complicating the landscape is the rise of new travel groupings. “Multigenerational and blended travel is on the rise because of changing lifestyles, flexible work setups, and aging populations,” explains the report. Across Thailand—a society where large family gatherings, ceremonial travel for Buddhist holidays, and group study tours have long traditions—this presents both logistical challenges and opportunities for closer engagement with Thai culture.
Solo travel, once a niche, is also booming—especially among millennials and Gen-Zers, who increasingly prefer cities and unique cultural sites over beaches. In BCG’s data, 18% to 39% of global travelers now take solo trips, with Asia-Pacific countries showing some of the fastest growth.
The report segments leisure travelers into five distinct “archetypes”: those seeking relaxation, fun, and safety; value hunters; and “uncompromising” explorers—primarily young, urban, and affluent. The latter group wants it all: relaxation, adventure, premium experiences, and sustainability, presenting both a demanding and lucrative target for Thai tourism providers.
Digital transformation, however, is the real game-changer. “Mobile-first booking, super-apps, and social commerce are the norm,” the report finds. AI-powered planning and inspiration via large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and Gemini are already reshaping how travelers discover, compare, and book trips. BCG warns that “GenAI search may pose an existential threat to travel companies,” as travelers bypass traditional booking sites in favor of conversational, hyper-personalized AI agents. Successful companies will combine “AI-powered simplicity with personalization, cultural relevance, and hybrid engagement”—a blend of cutting-edge tech and Thai hospitality.
Destination marketing strategies are also evolving. Qatar and Saudi Arabia’s Qiddiya have become case studies in harnessing digital tools, influencers, and AI-powered apps to reach travelers. Their approach—integrating AR/VR previews, personalized AI concierges, and sophisticated loyalty programs—can serve as inspiration for Thai tourism boards seeking to refresh their image and capture high-value regional visitors. “Travel companies should invest in smarter ways to understand what travelers need and how to meet those needs,” the BCG authors advise.
This is where Thailand’s strengths and vulnerabilities are thrown into relief. Thailand’s culinary reputation, for instance, dovetails perfectly with the surge in food tourism identified in the BCG report. “Food tourism is booming, especially in Asia—travelers from China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, in particular, rank food as a top motivator.” Thai cooking classes, night markets, and culinary festivals are ripe for expansion and digital promotion—offering both authentic experience and mass appeal.
Wellness and spiritual travel, already cornerstones of inbound tourism—with yoga retreats, meditation centers, and temple stays—are gaining urgency as consumers seek more than relaxation. The opportunity lies in refining these experiences, tailoring offerings to domestic, regional, and international tastes, and making them easily bookable via digital platforms.
However, new expectations also set a higher bar. Travelers now demand “hyper-personalized experiences, AI-driven recommendations, flexible itineraries, and seamless booking.” Language and dietary considerations, accessibility, and cultural sensitivities are paramount. BCG points out that “travelers will favor destinations that can cater to aspects of their culture.” In practice, this means Thai operators must be agile in everything from offering menus in Mandarin and Hindi, to smart translation apps, to personalized transportation and activity options for various religious or family needs.
Another major trend with implications for Thailand is the merging of business and leisure—the rise of “bleisure.” Increasingly, conference-goers and remote workers want to blend work trips with leisure, bolstering demand for flexible co-working spaces, fast connectivity, and hybrid meetings-meet-relaxation environments. The BCG study finds that over 70% of travelers from emerging markets, including China and India, now plan to combine work trips with leisure, compared to 15-30% in traditional travel markets such as the US, UK, and Germany.
For destination managers, airlines, and hospitality firms, the BCG report offers a blueprint to stay relevant:
- Refine route networks to parse emerging travel flows, particularly regional and secondary city connections.
- Invest in fleet flexibility, service modularity, and AI-driven customer personalization.
- Develop new loyalty and reward tiers catering to families, solo adventurers, and blended travelers.
- Ensure “findability” on AI-driven discovery platforms by integrating structured data and search optimization.
- Adapt hotel offerings—coworking lounges, dietary variety, multigenerational amenities—to new traveler archetypes.
- Collaborate across tourism boards, operators, and MICE agencies to curate thematic experiences—culinary trails, temple circuits, wellness itineraries—that can be bundled and marketed at scale.
- Leverage social media, personalized messaging, and influencer partnerships for targeted, culturally sensitive outreach (Boston Consulting Group).
Yet, risks abound. Continued political and economic uncertainty—such as shifts in visa policies, exchange rates, or global health events—could rapidly alter traveler flows and priorities. BCG notes, for instance, that “the evolving geopolitical landscape, US tariffs, and shifting immigration policy may affect travel demand,” and its forecasts deliberately exclude such wildcards. For Thailand, recent fluctuations in the Chinese outbound market serve as a sobering reminder.
Culturally, Thailand has unique potential to capitalize on the “community-driven” travel trend. Thai hospitality, local wisdom (ภูมิปัญญาท้องถิ่น), and deep-rooted community tourism can offer life-changing experiences to emerging traveler archetypes seeking meaning, connection, and authenticity. Programs to empower local makers, indigenous guides, and grassroots operators—if well-supported and digitized—can both sustain rural economies and meet new market demand.
Looking forward, the rise of AI-powered trip planning may decentralize power from global online travel agencies to more direct, localized, and niche booking channels. Thai companies—big and small—must rapidly upgrade their tech readiness, from AI chatbots to e-payment integration, to keep pace. Training and upskilling in both digital tools and foreign-language customer service will become essential for the next generation of Thai tourism professionals.
Critically, policymakers and tourism boards should not ignore the importance of personalized digital offerings and responsible data practices. As platforms harness ever-more intimate information about travelers for personalized recommendations, privacy, and customer trust must be safeguarded.
For Thai travelers themselves, now is the moment to look anew at the wonders close to home. The intensifying focus on domestic and regional trips invites Thais to rediscover lesser-known provinces, local festivals, and emerging wellness destinations. Engaging with local businesses—especially those adopting new digital booking and personalization—can ensure that both residents and visitors experience the best of contemporary Thai travel.
In practical terms, Thai tourism stakeholders should:
- Prioritize digital innovation: invest in AI, mobile-optimized websites, and real-time chat support with multilingual capabilities.
- Enhance “Thainess” in experience design, merging authenticity with customization for varied travel groups.
- Foster direct relationships with customers through digital loyalty programs and social community building.
- Seek regional collaboration—joint packages with ASEAN neighbors or Mekong subregion destinations—to capture the rising swell of intra-Asian travel.
- Stay alert to macroeconomic, geopolitical, and public health risks through scenario planning.
The $15 trillion leisure travel opportunity is not just a windfall for global conglomerates—it is a call to action for Thailand’s tourism sector to reinvent itself for a future defined by diversity, technology, and purpose-driven experiences. The key to thriving in this new reality lies in agility, creativity, and deep respect for both innovation and tradition.