A new study reveals that people with higher IQs are better at predicting life events, which leads to more informed choices. Led by the University of Bath’s School of Management and published in a leading psychology journal, the research highlights how intelligence influences everyday judgments about health, finances, and safety. For Thai readers, these insights help explain how knowledge can shape personal and national development.
Historically, researchers have linked intelligence to broad life outcomes such as income, education, and health. This study goes further by showing how cognitive ability affects probabilistic reasoning—the core skill behind risk assessment and decision making. In Thailand’s rapidly changing landscape, where households face more uncertainty, these findings resonate with efforts to build a knowledge-based society.
The analysis used data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, involving almost 4,000 participants over 50 who estimated their chances of living to various ages. These subjective forecasts were then compared with official life expectancy data derived from national life tables. Across the board, researchers found that accuracy improved when participants had higher cognitive ability. The study carefully controlled for lifestyle, health status, and longevity, underscoring intelligence as the main driver of these differences.
A striking result emerged: those in the top 2.5% of IQ made far more accurate and less extreme forecasts than those in the bottom 2.5%. The lowest IQ group overestimated or underestimated outcomes more than twice as often as their higher-IQ counterparts. The researchers also incorporated genetic data, indicating that intelligence-linked genetic markers are associated with better probabilistic reasoning. This suggests that both environment and inherited traits shape how people foresee future outcomes.
According to the Principal Investigator, “accurate probability judgments are central to good decision-making.” Whether starting a business, investing, crossing a street, or choosing a partner, calibrated expectations guide choices. The study argues that making probabilities explicit can improve decision quality, especially in health and finance.
For Thailand, the findings have important policy implications. The researchers propose presenting probability information clearly—rather than relying on intuition alone—when communicating health and financial risks. In Thailand’s public health literacy initiatives, for instance, stating the likelihood of developing chronic diseases with precise percentages could support healthier lifestyle decisions. Financial advisors and institutions could also offer probabilistic forecasts for investments, retirement planning, and even weather-related insurance outcomes to reduce miscalibrated risk estimates.
Thai scholars note similar challenges locally. Research from major universities highlights miscalibrated expectations in health behaviors and financial planning. Bank of Thailand data show many Thai budget planners underestimate long-term inflation, while young adults often misjudge life expectancy, leading to under-saving.
What sets this study apart is its robust use of genetic data. Mendelian randomization was employed to show that miscalibrated expectations are not merely the result of poverty or education gaps. Instead, cognitive ability itself appears to influence risk assessment and, in turn, major life choices.
The findings matter as Thailand’s aging population grows. With more Thais facing decisions about healthcare, retirement, and long-term security, policymakers and businesses must deliver information that is accessible and easy to understand. Experts advocate improving numeracy—basic interpretation of statistics—in Thai schools, aligning with the study’s call for explicit probability communication in health and finance.
Thai culture values honesty and consideration for others, which can lead to cautious, collective risk-taking. Yet, regardless of culture, accurate risk assessment depends on cognitive tools. Expanding financial and health literacy, particularly for lower-income groups, could help close persistent gaps.
The study warns that poorly calibrated expectations can lead to poorer financial welfare and slower economic growth. As Thailand pursues its innovation-driven economy, broad access to clear risk information becomes essential for inclusive progress.
In everyday life, the message is practical: seek sources that present risks with clear percentages and visuals; ask professionals to explain probabilities in plain terms; practice basic numeracy, such as interpreting graphs; support education policies that embed risk literacy in the curriculum; and advocate for plain-language communications from public and private institutions, especially for the elderly and those making critical health and retirement decisions.
For policymakers, the takeaway is clear: advances in health, wealth, and well-being hinge on a nation that fosters sharper, better-calibrated minds through transparent, data-driven information.
Further reading and context are found in research summaries on probabilistic reasoning and intelligence, with Thailand’s health and education strategies explored by national bodies focused on education and public health. As evidence grows for the role of cognitive ability in decision-making, Thailand’s path forward will depend on smarter minds and smarter policies.
Practical steps for Thai readers:
- Prefer information that presents risks with percentages and easy-to-understand visuals.
- Request probability explanations from financial advisors, doctors, or local officials.
- Build basic numeracy skills to interpret data in daily life.
- Support curricula and policies that emphasize risk literacy and critical thinking.
- Advocate for transparent probability communication in programs affecting health and retirement decisions.