A groundbreaking new study has found that individuals with higher IQs possess a significantly greater ability to predict life events, resulting in better-informed decision-making. The research, led by the University of Bath’s School of Management and published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, sheds light on the crucial role intelligence plays not only in academic and occupational achievements but also in everyday judgments about health, finances, and personal safety. For Thai readers, understanding these findings could prove essential in navigating critical choices for both personal and national development.
The link between intelligence and life outcomes has long been recognized in international research. IQ is widely known to predict factors such as income, education, and health. However, this new study takes a step further by exploring how intelligence influences the ability to assess risks and probabilities—core skills for making informed decisions. In Thailand, where rapid economic and social changes frequently force households and individuals to confront uncertainty, the study’s insights resonate with the drive towards a more knowledge-based society.
The research analyzed data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, which included nearly 4,000 participants aged over 50. Each participant was asked to estimate their own probability of living to certain ages. These personal forecasts were then compared with official life expectancies derived from United Kingdom life tables—tools also used globally, including by the National Statistical Office of Thailand, to inform policy decisions and health planning (ONS Life Tables). By comparing subjective probabilities to objective statistics, the research team was able to determine how accurately individuals perceived their own risks.
What emerged was a stark difference between high- and low-IQ participants. Those in the highest 2.5% for IQ made forecast errors that were less frequent and significantly less extreme than those in the bottom 2.5%. In fact, the least intelligent group’s predictions were over twice as inaccurate as the most intelligent group. Importantly, the study controlled for lifestyle, health status, and genetic longevity, ensuring that intelligence itself was the main factor driving these differences (Neuroscience News report).
The research team, led by a Professor of Economics and Behavioural Science at the University of Bath, also examined genetic data. Their findings show that genetic markers associated with intelligence and educational achievement are closely linked to improved probabilistic reasoning. In other words, both tested cognitive ability and inherited tendencies play a role in how accurately people foresee future possibilities. This supports the idea that intelligence is not just a product of environment or education but also has a biological foundation—a perspective increasingly supported in recent genetic research (PubMed example).
“Accurately assessing the probability of good and bad things happening to us is central to good decision-making,” explained the study’s Principal Investigator. “Almost all decisions we make—whether starting a business, investing, crossing the road, or choosing who to date—require probabilistic assessments.” The study posits that this ‘calibration’ of expectations, or an accurate sense of the likelihood of various outcomes, is a key channel through which intelligence impacts life outcomes.
These findings carry policy implications that are highly relevant for Thai society. According to the authors, one potential intervention would be to present explicit probability information—especially in health and finance—rather than relying on individuals to calculate risks based on intuition alone. For instance, in Thailand’s ongoing efforts to boost public health literacy, presenting the chances of developing chronic diseases with clear percentages, rather than ambiguous advice, could help citizens make more informed lifestyle choices. Similarly, financial advisors or institutions could provide clients with probabilistic forecasts for investments, retirement savings, or even weather-related insurance outcomes, supporting better decisions for households prone to forecasting errors.
The study’s results echo similar challenges faced in Thailand. Research conducted by academic institutions such as Chulalongkorn University and Mahidol University has highlighted issues with miscalibrated expectations, both in health behaviors (like smoking cessation and vaccine uptake) and in financial planning (such as underestimating retirement needs). According to a study by the Bank of Thailand, many Thai budget planners underestimate long-term inflation, while young adults frequently misjudge their own life expectancies, leading to under-saving (BOT Economic Review).
What sets this new research apart is its rigorous use of genetic data. The authors employed Mendelian randomization—an advanced statistical approach using gene variants linked to intelligence as an “instrumental variable”—to demonstrate that miscalibrated expectations are not merely the result of poverty, lack of education, or cultural beliefs. Instead, cognitive ability itself may causally influence one’s risk assessment, which in turn shapes critical choices.
This insight is especially potent for Thailand’s aging population. As the kingdom’s median age rises, more and more Thais are being asked to make complicated decisions around healthcare, retirement, and long-term financial security. If policymakers and marketers fail to account for citizens’ variable cognitive abilities, they may inadvertently expose millions to suboptimal choices simply because information is not tailored for accessibility or clarity.
Thai experts in psychology and public health have long advocated for improved ‘numeracy’—the ability to interpret basic probability and statistical information—in Thai schools (Mahidol University Public Health Brief). This aligns with the research team’s recommendation that “explicitly stating probability estimates on information relating to health and finance, rather than relying on individuals to do their own calculations, could help people prone to forecasting errors to make more informed, accurate decisions.” Such approaches could mitigate inequalities rooted in cognitive differences.
Cultural values also shape attitudes toward risk and probability. For example, Thai culture often emphasizes ‘s̄ật-thị-tha-phaap’ (honesty/sincerity) and ‘kreng-jai’ (consideration for others), which in social settings sometimes leads to more cautious, collective risk-taking. However, the study suggests that regardless of cultural context, the accuracy of risk assessment depends on a person’s cognitive toolkit. Promoting financial and health literacy among those with lower cognitive ability—often found among economically disadvantaged groups—could help bridge persistent gaps in Thai society.
The researchers also draw attention to the broader economic implications. “Poorly calibrated expectations can lead to bad financial decisions and reduced economic welfare, which can adversely affect national growth,” the lead author points out. For Thailand’s ‘Thailand 4.0’ vision of a new, innovative economy, it is vital that all citizens—not just the cognitively gifted—are given access to understandable, reliable information about the risks and rewards of their choices.
In the context of everyday life, the research is a call to action for Thai families, teachers, and community leaders. Whether planning for Songkran (which often sees an uptick in health and road accidents), selecting university courses, or investing in the stock market, the study recommends that Thais seek out clear, evidence-based information about risks. Likewise, public and private institutions should prioritize transparency and simplicity when communicating statistics—using charts, easy-to-understand infographics, and regular public briefings.
Looking forward, the study lays the groundwork for future research in Thailand and Asia on the interplay between intelligence, genetics, and real-world behavior. Scholars may investigate how cognitive training or improved education could help close the gap for those whose probabilistic reasoning is less robust. Experiments testing how different populations respond to explicitly stated risk probabilities—as opposed to vague or verbal summaries—could inform future policy in education, finance, and public health.
Practical steps that Thai readers can take include:
- Seeking out sources of information that present risks with percentages and clear data visualizations.
- Asking financial advisors, healthcare providers, or local officials to explain probability and risk in easy-to-understand terms.
- Practicing basic numeracy skills—such as interpreting graphs or calculating odds—to improve day-to-day decision-making.
- Supporting education policies that embed risk literacy and critical thinking in the national curriculum.
- Advocating for policies and products that communicate probability explicitly, especially for the elderly or those making critical health and retirement decisions.
For policymakers, the findings are a strong reminder: The next big leap in Thailand’s health, wealth, and well-being may rest not just on infrastructure or investment, but on building a nation of sharper, better-calibrated minds.
For further reading and context, see the original study summary at Neuroscience News and details on Thailand’s health and education strategies at the Office of the Education Council and Ministry of Public Health. As evidence mounts for the critical importance of cognitive ability in decision-making, the path ahead for Thailand will demand both smarter minds and smarter policies.