Hawaii’s tourism sector — long considered a bellwether for global island destinations — is experiencing a significant downturn this summer, sparking worry among industry experts, policymakers, and local businesses. A new report by SFGate highlights that June’s daily visitor counts are down sharply compared to 2024, with similar trends expected for July and August, shattering hopes for a robust seasonal recovery (SFGate). The story holds vital lessons for the Thai tourism industry, which faces its own post-pandemic uncertainties.
Recent summers in Hawaii saw record-breaking numbers, with over 10 million visitors in 2019 — a milestone matched by few island economies globally. But a perfect storm of factors, including the lingering psychological and economic effects of the 2023 Lahaina fire, increased vacation costs, fluctuating global economic policy, and concerns about overtourism, have all contributed to a sustained slump. According to a recent forecast by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, international arrivals are already down 3–6%, with air travel from traditional source markets such as Japan and Canada declining by double-digit percentages. Experts now project overall visitor arrivals to drop by another 4% in the next two years, translating to a $1.6 billion reduction in real visitor spending by 2026 and widespread declines in tourism-linked employment. A full rebound, analysts warn, may not come until 2028 (SFGate).
This sustained decline has upended assumptions about the resilience of tropical island destinations — a concern particularly relevant for Thailand, whose economy is deeply intertwined with the fortunes of international tourism. The Thai tourism industry, which pre-pandemic routinely drew over 40 million visitors annually, watched anxiously as Hawaii’s travel ecosystem struggled despite aggressive marketing campaigns and increased airline capacity. Hawaii’s experience demonstrates the fragility of recovery when confronted with global uncertainty and the delicate interplay between public safety, economic necessity, and local sentiment. In the aftermath of the 2023 Lahaina fire — a disaster that deeply traumatized residents and triggered global headlines — both the Maui County Mayor and local communities urged tourists to pause their travel, citing concerns over overtourism, resource strain, and the need for community healing. These appeals were met with empathy but also contributed to confusion among potential travelers about whether visiting would be welcome or appropriate.
Hawaii’s challenges are multidimensional. The state, after spending heavily to promote post-pandemic and post-disaster recovery, is now facing new policy headwinds. The report points to a “softer summer for Hawaii travel compared to last year,” with bookings and overall interest at lows not seen in years, according to a major island travel adviser (SFGate). While the initial reaction to COVID-19’s end brought a surge of visitors and even prompted pleas from mayors to rein in arrivals, the trajectory quickly reversed with the compounded effect of natural disaster and gradually eroding economic confidence.
Hotel operators share a bleak near-term outlook. A senior executive at Outrigger Hospitality Group, which manages a key portfolio of hotels across the islands, noted that the summer outlook is “likely flat to 2024 in terms of demand and occupancy, and the signs are not encouraging.” Bookings are weak across Oahu, with annual visitation to the state projected to remain well below 2019 levels (SFGate). The Hawaii Tourism Authority and Hawaii Visitors & Convention Bureau have responded with a $6 million marketing campaign aimed at stimulating travel not only to Maui but statewide, highlighting a mix of hope and urgency.
Tour operators have observed dramatic shifts in traveler behavior. The president of Pleasant Holidays, one of the United States’ largest travel companies, indicated that post-fire, there was briefly strong demand for other islands before momentum shifted back to Maui late last year. However, since February, new U.S. federal policy changes and broader economic unease have led to much shorter booking windows, with travelers now making decisions just weeks before departure — a behavior that complicates planning for hoteliers and airlines alike. “We’re not seeing what we wanted to see, which is some substantial growth," said the operator, underscoring the unpredictable nature of recovery (SFGate).
Aviation, however, provides a rare glimmer of optimism. Hawaiian Airlines, in response to expected summer demand, has increased its seat capacity and flight frequency. The airline, now merged with Alaska Airlines, reports growth in nonstop flights to key destinations including Maui, Hawaii Island, and Kauai. Expanded schedules from the U.S. West Coast — such as daily service between Portland and Honolulu as well as more flights between San Francisco and other islands — underline the sector’s efforts to stimulate demand through convenience and connectivity (SFGate).
Nonetheless, not all industry players are equally optimistic. The director of tourism research at the Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism cautions that the reality is complex, with performance varying “property by property, airline by airline.” While airline data may show strong demand, hoteliers broadly report a “soft summer,” mirroring the trends seen in the wider economy (SFGate). The researcher also points to the unpredictability of rapidly changing global events, which can upend trends week to week — a warning that could just as easily apply to Thai tourist operators contending with shifting Chinese, Russian, and European travel patterns.
For Thailand, the implications of Hawaii’s downturn are profound. Both destinations rely heavily on foreign arrivals, face social questions around overtourism, and must balance cultural and environmental preservation with economic recovery. Thailand’s own experiences — from the temporary closure of Maya Bay to heal coral damage, to the recent push to attract longer-staying, high-value tourists — parallel Hawaii’s attempts to recalibrate for a more sustainable future. But Hawaii’s experience warns that even a well-managed reopening and robust infrastructure do not guarantee a speedy or even full recovery, especially if external shocks, disaster recovery, and policy uncertainty intersect.
Historically, both Hawaii and Thailand have grappled with the dualities of tourism: its power to uplift local economies and its capacity to strain communities and ecosystems. The memory of Thailand’s 2018 ban on visitors to Maya Bay due to environmental degradation — and the subsequent carefully managed reopening — remains fresh. In Hawaii, concerns about smug overtourism have been met with resident outcry, suggesting limits to traditional growth-based models. Moreover, the recent shift in travelers’ booking patterns towards last-minute decisions mirrors trends currently being seen by operators throughout Southeast Asia, fueled by economic uncertainty, fluctuating airfares, and ongoing international tensions (Tourism Authority of Thailand, UNWTO).
Looking to the future, both regions will have to contend with longer recovery timelines than initially anticipated. For Hawaii, new federal policy directions and global headwinds are expected to dampen demand for years, prompting the state to accept that a return to 2019 visitor levels may not happen until closer to the decade’s end. The tourism-linked workforce across all counties will face declining opportunities unless other industries emerge to pick up the slack. Thai policymakers and tourism leaders, observing from afar, may choose to redouble their own diversification and sustainable tourism campaigns, learning from Hawaii’s cautious experience.
Practically, industry experts recommend that stakeholders in Thailand remain agile. Key strategies include adopting flexible pricing and booking policies to respond to shifting consumer behaviors, investing in sustainable and community-based tourism offerings to draw higher-value, lower-impact visitors, and ramping up targeted marketing to diversify source markets — especially as Thailand seeks to counterbalance any reduction in Chinese arrivals with new segments from India, the Middle East, or intra-ASEAN markets (The Nation). Further, increased collaboration between the Tourism Authority of Thailand, local governments, and private sector operators will be crucial to ensuring that the country’s tourism recovery is resilient and future-proof.
For Thai readers — particularly those in hospitality, travel, and government — the implications are clear: global tourism recovery is a marathon, not a sprint. External disruptions, from natural disasters to global politics, can slow progress. Hawaii’s story reminds us of the importance of flexibility, sustainability, and community engagement in shaping a successful tourism future.
For travelers themselves, the call is to remain informed, book responsibly, and consider the broader social and environmental impacts of tourism choices — both in Hawaii and closer to home in Thailand’s beloved islands and cultural heartlands. Ultimately, the lessons learned abroad can help shape a more sustainable and inclusive tourism industry here, ensuring that recovery is meaningful for both guests and hosts.
Sources: SFGate, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, Tourism Authority of Thailand, The Nation, UNWTO