Hawaii, often synonymous with idyllic beaches and dream holidays, is in the grip of an unexpectedly soft summer, with tourism numbers and travel bookings “significantly down”—a development causing deep concern among hospitality leaders, economists, and travel experts both in the US and worldwide. The trend, detailed in a recent report by SFGate, is not just a temporary dip but suggests ongoing challenges that hold insights for other international tourist destinations—Thailand included—still striving to recover and adapt after years of pandemic and disaster disruptions (SFGate).
Traditionally, Hawaii’s tourism peaks from June through August, when a flood of international and US visitors fills hotels, beaches, and city centers across its islands. Yet, according to Bruce Fisher, a prominent Hawaii travel adviser, the state is witnessing “the slowest June in quite some time—significantly down in terms of bookings and overall interest.” July and August are tracking even with last year but are not showing the type of recovery or momentum tour operators had hoped for. Compared with the over 10 million visitor record set in 2019, Hawaii’s annual visitation is expected to remain well below pre-pandemic levels for some years yet.
This downturn is influenced by complex, overlapping factors. The most immediate is the aftermath of the 2023 Lahaina fire on Maui, which led to widespread uncertainty about travel ethics and appropriateness, coupled with practical concerns such as soaring hotel rates and rising travel costs. Nearly two years after the disaster, arrivals have failed to rebound. According to the University of Hawaii’s Economic Research Organization, international arrivals are down by 3–6%, with especially sharp declines from key overseas markets like Japan and Canada. The organization forecasts a 4% overall drop in total visitor arrivals over the next two years and an estimated US$1.6 billion reduction in visitor spending by 2026. Equally concerning is the expected decline in visitor-driven employment across every county in the state, with a full recovery of arrivals not expected until 2028.
The report highlights another emerging trend: changes in global economic policy and domestic uncertainty in the US are making travelers more cautious. David Hu, president and CEO of travel giant Pleasant Holidays, observes that tourists are “tightening their booking windows” and often deciding just two to four weeks before their trips—making business predictions difficult for hotels and airlines alike. Meanwhile, Jennifer Chun, director of tourism research at Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, cautions that the picture remains variable, noting, “it’s property by property, airline by airline, how people are doing.”
Some local operators, like Outrigger Hospitality Group, anticipate a “flat” summer at best. In an effort to stimulate demand, the Hawaii Tourism Authority and Hawaii Visitors & Convention Bureau have launched a US$6 million marketing campaign targeting Maui and, by extension, the rest of the state. Airlines, adjusting to these new dynamics, are introducing extra flights on selected routes, banking on “synergies” created by last December’s merger between Hawaiian and Alaska Airlines.
Why should Thailand care about Hawaii’s travel turbulence? The answer lies in the parallels between the two destinations—a reliance on international tourism, vulnerability to global disruptions, and the recent experience of both environmental crises and pandemic shutdowns. Thai hospitality professionals and government stakeholders can draw several lessons from Hawaii’s experience:
First, the sharp, protracted downturn following a natural disaster reveals how fragile tourism-based economies remain even years after the event. Thailand, with its history of weathering tsunamis and floods, is no stranger to such volatility. Much like Maui, which was hit by wildfires, Thai islands that have faced natural disasters struggle with both the physical aftermath and the broader perception of safety among global travelers.
Second, the challenge of overtourism has been replaced by an equally tough challenge: how to attract tourists in a competitive, uncertain global environment. After Covid-19, both Hawaii and Thailand initially saw a “revenge travel” boom, but the recent stagnation in Hawaii highlights that such booms are not permanent. Long-term, tourism boards must balance aggressive marketing with careful stewardship of natural and cultural resources, lest the pendulum swing back toward negative impacts on local communities.
Third, the shifting nature of traveler behavior—with shorter booking windows, last-minute decisions, and sharp sensitivity to price—echoes market changes seen in Southeast Asia, especially as the strong baht and rising living costs deter some traditional foreign visitors from returning to Thailand (Bangkok Post). Thai hoteliers and tour operators should heed these trends as they plan inventory, pricing, and marketing.
The challenges seen in Hawaii are not confined to the islands. Rather, they hold global significance, especially for tourism-dependent economies like Thailand. Experts in Thailand’s Ministry of Tourism and Sports have already observed fluctuations in arrival numbers from key markets such as China and Russia, while the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is pursuing more diversified, multi-country campaigns to sustain growth (TAT Newsroom). As in Hawaii, these efforts must now confront both external factors—such as shifting airline networks and global inflation—and internal issues like capacity, workforce shortages, and sustainable tourism practices.
Thailand has strong historical and cultural ties to Hawaii, with both archipelagos drawing on centuries-old traditions of welcoming visitors and promoting unique local identities. Both places have faced questions about overtourism and the sustainability of their signature tourism models. Hawaii’s current downturn underscores the urgency of these questions. As Thai officials structure long-term plans, they must consider how to safeguard local communities’ well-being, preserve natural beauty, and maintain international appeal even as competition intensifies and external shocks multiply.
Looking forward, both destinations will need to embrace greater resilience. Hawaii’s projection of a full recovery stretching to 2028 suggests caution for anyone assuming a swift return to the “old normal.” Thai planners should take note of the need for innovative, flexible responses—like pivoting to new markets, developing year-round tourism products, and enhancing the value proposition with green and cultural initiatives.
For Thai readers—especially business owners and policymakers—the lesson is to prepare for prolonged uncertainty in the tourism industry. This means investing in workforce upskilling, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and diversifying income streams beyond mass tourism. Equally important is communicating effectively with international visitors, making clear that Thailand remains a safe, welcoming, and value-rich destination, even in a world of perpetual change.
Practical recommendations include maintaining a close watch on global and regional travel trends, supporting targeted marketing campaigns during vulnerable seasons, and creating contingency funds or insurance schemes for disaster-hit regions. Above all, Thailand should foster strong collaboration between government, private sector, and local communities to build a tourism sector that not only survives shocks but thrives in their wake.
For readers considering travel—either within Thailand, to Hawaii, or elsewhere—be aware that booking dynamics are changing, with last-minute deals and frequent shifts in availability and price. Planning ahead, monitoring official travel guidelines, and supporting sustainable tourism choices can help ensure safe and rewarding journeys.