Thailand’s tourism industry, long reliant on a steady influx of Chinese travellers, is now undergoing a major strategic shift as arrivals from China continue to disappoint, prompting the kingdom to intensify efforts to attract visitors from Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Recent statements from the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) reveal that the agency has lowered its 2025 forecast for foreign arrivals to 35 million—a significant drop from the previous target of 40 million—due primarily to the underwhelming recovery of the Chinese market. This new reality is reshaping both marketing and investment priorities for Thailand’s second-largest economic sector, with implications for businesses, workers, and communities nationwide (South China Morning Post; Bloomberg).
For more than a decade, Chinese tourists have dominated Thailand’s inbound tourism, contributing nearly 11 million visitors in 2019 and forming the foundation for countless hotels, restaurants, and tour agencies. However, since the COVID-19 pandemic and continuing through 2024 and 2025, arrivals have failed to rebound to pre-pandemic levels. According to TAT data, only 1.96 million Chinese tourists visited Thailand in the first five months of 2025, representing a 33% year-on-year plunge (The Nation). This slump has been attributed to a combination of economic headwinds in China, ongoing travel restrictions, and increased safety concerns—such as the high-profile abduction case involving a Chinese celebrity in Bangkok in 2025, which stoked fears among potential visitors.
This sharp decline carries major ramifications for Thailand’s economy. International tourism typically generates around 12% to 20% of Thailand’s GDP, with the sector accounting for up to 30% of GDP by 2030 if pre-pandemic growth had continued unabated (Wikipedia: Tourism in Thailand). In 2024, the country hosted just over 16.6 million tourist arrivals in the first half of the year, a contraction of nearly 5% from the year before (The Nation). TAT now projects total 2025 inbound tourism revenue at 1.6 trillion baht, out of an estimated 2.8 trillion baht total tourism income—well short of earlier government ambitions.
Recognising the vulnerabilities exposed by this over-dependence on the Chinese market, the TAT has announced a broadened strategy. According to the Governor of the agency, “The Middle East market is a supporting factor helping to boost tourism revenue as it currently has growth of about 17 to 18 per cent. We need to increase the volume of arrivals from the Middle East and airlines” (SCMP). The TAT’s aim is to attract over 1 million Middle Eastern visitors in 2025, an 11% year-on-year growth, with the region’s tourists recognised for longer average stays and higher per capita spending compared to many other markets (Travel and Tour World).
At the same time, Southeast Asian neighbours—Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam in particular—are being prioritised for increased regional travel flows. Shorter flight times, strong existing business connections, and targeted visa-exemption agreements make these markets a logical focus. TAT is also ramping up airline partnerships and joint marketing campaigns, as demonstrated in the recent Airline Focus Partnership Meeting held in July 2025 (Travel Daily Media).
Several factors have contributed to the continued weakness in Chinese arrivals. On the Chinese side, sluggish economic growth, battered consumer confidence, and stricter government guidance on outbound travel have reduced demand—especially for long-haul, free-and-easy travel product segments. Safety remains a critical concern, as underscored by the kidnapping of actor Wang Xing, an incident which made headlines both in Chinese and Thai media. This follows well-publicised cases of scams, crime targeting Chinese nationals, and online misinformation, all of which have made Chinese tourists more cautious when considering Thailand as a destination (SCMP).
The shift in target markets represents a major realignment for Thailand. Southeast Asian visitors tend to arrive in higher numbers but spend less on average than both Chinese and long-haul counterparts. Meanwhile, the Middle Eastern market, though smaller in absolute numbers, is prized for luxury consumption, medical tourism, and multi-generational family travel. The TAT’s Governor stated: “We must diversify our risks. The days of waiting for only Chinese tourists are over—our campaigns must also resonate with our friends in Southeast Asia, as well as high-potential visitors from the Middle East and Oceania.”
For businesses long accustomed to catering to Chinese groups, this pivot presents both challenges and opportunities. Many tour operators, hotel managers, and souvenir vendors in popular destinations such as Bangkok, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, and Phuket have had to retrain staff, hire multilingual employees, and adjust product offerings to cater to different cultural tastes and culinary preferences. Universities and language institutes in Thailand have reported a spike in demand for Arabic and Bahasa Malay courses among tourism workers, highlighting the country’s adaptability when facing new realities.
The push for Middle Eastern and Southeast Asian tourists is evident in airport lounges, halal-friendly hotels, and shopping malls with expanded prayer room facilities. Medical tourism, already well-established for Gulf nationals, is being heavily promoted by private hospitals in Bangkok and Phuket, who are offering packages for wellness, cosmetic surgery, and family health checks. Meanwhile, halal food certification and Ramadan-related marketing offers are increasingly visible in major tourist zones (Travel and Tour World).
Historically, Thailand has been celebrated as the “Land of Smiles” and “Amazing Thailand,” brands deeply associated with a warm welcome, diverse landscapes, rich Buddhist culture, and vibrant nightlife. This identity made it a magnet for Chinese tourists seeking tropical escapes and cultural immersion. The latest shift, however, re-emphasises Thailand’s readiness to accommodate a much broader set of experiences, values, and expectations. In this, the country draws on its long-standing appeal to global travellers, dating back to the first post-war boom in the 1960s and 70s.
This pivot in Thai tourism strategy also takes place amidst stiff regional competition. Notably, in early 2025, Malaysia overtook Thailand as the most visited Southeast Asian nation, attracting over 10 million foreign visitors in the first quarter alone (MSN). Vietnam and Singapore, too, are enjoying robust inbound figures, benefitting from government investment in tourism infrastructure, stronger flight connectivity, and aggressive digital marketing.
Looking ahead, several industry experts anticipate a more fragmented, diversified tourism recovery for Thailand. The Secretary-General of the National Economic and Social Development Council stressed, “Tourism as a percentage of GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels only if we continue to innovate and embrace new markets. Our challenge is not only to raise visitor numbers, but also to deliver higher yield and sustainable practices that benefit host communities.” International observers from the United Nations World Tourism Organization have highlighted the resilience of Thailand’s service sector and its enormous potential if climate adaptation, safety, and digital transformation continue apace.
For Thai readers—whether hoteliers, restaurateurs, local governments, or prospective employees—the recommendation is clear: embrace flexibility and a global outlook. Investments in language skills, cultural understanding, and new service models will be crucial. Local authorities must redouble efforts to address safety, transparently communicate progress, and build trust among all tourist groups. Sustainable tourism, now more than ever, requires mindful stewardship of natural and cultural resources to ensure that new visitor streams do not replicate past pressures.
In conclusion, while the “golden era” of Chinese mass tourism may be fading, Thailand’s ability to adapt—to learn languages, adopt new customs and create welcoming environments for all—will determine whether the kingdom can remain one of the world’s most attractive and diverse destinations. Business owners are urged to stay abreast of TAT announcements, diversify their service offerings, and contribute to a tourism industry that is resilient, sustainable, and inclusive. As the Tourism Authority’s Governor summed up: “Thailand’s smile must be for the world, not just one country.”
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