Tourism and travel are rebounding after the seismic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, but researchers warn that new global realities could reshape how Thais and travelers worldwide experience the world—and even how Thais welcome guests to the Kingdom. A recent white paper, jointly released by the World Economic Forum and Kearney, models four dramatically different scenarios for the future of tourism, examining how rising geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, urgent sustainability needs, and rapid digitalization could change the sector by 2030. For a tourism-dependent country such as Thailand, understanding these scenarios is essential for preparing for both risks and opportunities ahead (WEF/Kearney Report).
Before the pandemic, Thais saw tourism as almost a law of nature; millions arrived at Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports each year to enjoy Thai beaches, temples, and cuisine—just as Frank Sinatra once crooned, “Come fly with me.” The shock of the 2020 lockdowns reminded everyone how intertwined tourism is with both livelihoods and national identity. This powerful new report finds that, despite a healthy rebound with a 5% year-on-year increase in global tourist arrivals in the first quarter of 2025 and a predicted 7% annual spending growth over the next decade, the ground beneath the global tourism industry is shifting. Four possible futures, as modelled in the study, present very different implications for Thailand and beyond.
The first scenario, dubbed “A Thousand Islands World,” envisions travel fragmented by escalating geopolitical tensions, protectionist policies, and sluggish economies. In such a world, international tourism would shrink; border restrictions and falling incomes would take their toll. For destinations like Thailand’s southern islands or northern cities dependent on international visitors, the economic impacts could be severe. Regional travel between countries with harmonized rules might benefit, but this would do little to help the communities relying on long-haul tourists from Europe or North America. “Low-income destinations will feel the impact of these trends most acutely,” warns the report. On the bright side, less international air travel could mean reduced carbon emissions—a small boon for the climate.
Scenario two, “Harmonious Horizons,” presents a far brighter possibility. Here, openness and multilateral cooperation see a world where liberalized visa rules and higher disposable incomes fuel a boom in international tourism, with nearly a one-third increase in arrivals expected by 2030. Notably, much of that growth would be driven by travelers from the Global South—including India, Indonesia, and Nigeria—highlighting a shift in source markets. However, even in this optimistic future, challenges persist: labor shortages, rising aviation emissions, and risks of overtourism in hotspots such as Bangkok, Pattaya, and Phuket. The report suggests dynamic pricing and regulated access as tools to manage environmental impacts, lessons that may be keenly relevant for Thai destinations frequently strained by crowding.
The third scenario, “Green Ascent,” puts sustainability and climate consciousness at the heart of travel. In this world, environmentally aware tourists prioritize eco-certified, low-impact destinations, and governments enforce strict environmental regulations. High-speed rail replaces many short-haul flights, and “high-value, low volume” tourism models flourish—similar to campaigns already piloted across Thailand’s national parks and heritage sites. Here, green tourism jobs multiply, while the majority of travelers (68%) opt for regenerative tourism, directly benefiting local communities and natural habitats. Yet, even in this green future, new conflicts emerge, such as the environmental costs of producing sustainable aviation fuels and the challenge of balancing growth with preservation of rare ecosystems—something of deep importance wherever rainforest meets resort.
The final scenario, “Tech Turbulence,” forecasts a dizzyingly connected but uneven future where digitalization, automation, and artificial intelligence transform travel experiences—and the industry workforce. Adoption of generative AI is projected to reach 78% by 2030, and advanced mobile networks would permeate most cities. Virtual and augmented reality (VR/AR) tourism could become mainstream, reducing physical travel for some but consuming vast energy resources to power the required technologies. The workforce would transform, with up to 45% of tourism jobs automated—creating both job displacement and, paradoxically, more than two million unfilled positions requiring new digital skills. For Thai workers accustomed to face-to-face hospitality, these changes would demand significant upskilling. As the digital divide widens, rural communities and lower-income regions could risk being left behind, both in Thailand and abroad.
Across all four scenarios, the report urges leaders in government and private industry to develop proactive strategies: innovative financing, targeted workforce development, improved digital infrastructure, and greater public-private collaboration. “Public-private partnerships are crucial for funding, regenerative practices and digital transformation, making T&T resilient and a catalyst for equitable prosperity,” the authors write. Without coordinated action, problems such as overtourism, labor shortages, and environmental damage could threaten the sector’s future and Thailand’s role as a top tourist destination.
For Thailand, where tourism accounts for a significant share of GDP and millions of jobs, the stakes are impossibly high. “We must not take continued tourist arrivals for granted,” explained an official with the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, when asked about the report’s implications. “Our policies must be resilient to shocks, flexible to digital change, and uncompromising regarding the sustainability of our national treasures.” Industry voices, like those from the Thai Hotels Association, echo this sentiment: “Our sector is already seeing shifts toward more regional travel and digital booking, but we’re only at the beginning of a much larger wave.”
Thailand’s historical experience offers important lessons for adaptation as well. During unexpected downturns or crises—such as the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s or the 2018 Phuket boat accident—the flexibility and creativity of Thai tourism operators have helped the industry recover. Community-based tourism in northern villages and coastline restoration projects in the South now serve as templates for regenerative tourism and environmental stewardship. Additionally, innovations such as the “Thailand Pass” and various social media campaigns have illustrated how digital tools can ease travel processes while providing data crucial for both marketing and safety—an approach whose importance is magnified in all four scenarios.
Looking ahead, Thais can expect their role in tourism to broaden: welcoming not only Western travelers but an increasingly diverse array of visitors from India, Africa, and Southeast Asia; moving from mass tourism to higher-value, lower-impact models; and rapidly reskilling workers for a world of AI-driven booking and personalized marketing. Thai policymakers have already set ambitious targets for sustainable tourism and green investments; the challenge will be scaling up these pilots to reach the mainstream, while minimizing negative side-effects for vulnerable communities and sensitive environments.
Travelers themselves will also need to adapt. The age of “set and forget” tourism is over—today’s Thai and international travelers must bolster digital literacy, reconsider the environmental footprint of each trip, and embrace new forms of cultural exchange, whether physically or virtually. “Whether we like it or not, tourism is changing,” comments an academic at a leading Bangkok-based university. “It’s up to us, as Thais, to make sure that change is for the better—for our country, our environment, and our future.”
In practical terms, what should Thais do? For policymakers and business leaders, the top priority is investing in people: retraining workers, developing language and digital skills, and supporting entrepreneurship that taps into new travel markets. Destinations must assess their readiness for shocks—be they geopolitical, technological, or environmental—and design strategies to be flexible and inclusive. Tourists and residents alike can support certified green businesses, use sustainable transport where possible, and stay informed about how rapidly evolving technology may affect both the costs and opportunities of future travel. By making smart choices today, Thais can help steer travel and tourism toward a future that is sustainable, prosperous, and welcoming for all.
For further reading and to see the primary research, visit the World Economic Forum and Kearney white paper.