A new wave of demographic research shows a clear connection between rising secularism in the United States and falling birth rates. For Thai readers, the findings offer a crucial caution: cultural and social supports for families matter, and rapid changes in values can accelerate population decline if policy does not respond.
Across several large studies, highly religious Americans tend to have larger families than their secular peers. The share of Americans who identify as religiously unaffiliated has grown steadily, reaching about 29% in recent years. Importantly, women who attend religious services weekly tend to have roughly twice as many children as those who never attend. These patterns help explain much of the drop in national fertility observed since 2012, beyond economic factors alone.
In the United States, births fell to about 3.6 million in 2023, with fertility roughly 54.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. While housing costs, delayed marriage, and shifting gender roles are influential, researchers are emphasizing that cultural changes around religion play a central role in shaping family choices. The Institute for Family Studies highlights that rising irreligion, combined with shifting religious compositions, accounts for a large portion of declines in fertility during 2012-2019.
Religious communities support higher fertility through several channels: earlier marriage and stable partnerships, explicit cultural norms favoring larger families, and robust community networks that ease child-rearing. Faith-based schools, mutual aid groups, and childcare cooperation reduce practical barriers to raising children. The Pew Religious Landscape Study notes that religious families are more likely to educate their children in religious settings and to engage in family-centered practices.
Thailand faces a sharper fertility challenge. The latest estimates place the total fertility rate around 1.2 to 1.3 births per woman, among the world’s lowest. Fewer births in 2022 highlighted the urgency for policy action to sustain social and economic systems built on population growth and intergenerational support. The Thai context shows how modernization, urbanization, and changing values can erode traditional family-support structures even when cultural heritage remains strong.
Thai society shares parallels with the American experience. Buddhist temples have long provided social anchors, hosting lifecycle rites and mutual aid networks. Yet rising education levels, smaller family units, and urban lifestyles are diminishing this traditional support system, contributing to lower fertility. Younger generations participate less in temple life, mirroring global trends toward secularization that still coexist with strong cultural identities. These shifts interact with rising living costs and job pressures to shape family planning decisions.
Global research consistently demonstrates that cultural institutions matter for demographic outcomes. Religious communities offer moral guidance, practical help, and social norms that support family formation. At the same time, economic conditions—income security, affordable housing, and workplace policies—remain critical. Effective policy must blend material supports with ways to strengthen community ties, while respecting individual freedoms and secular governance.
For Thai policymakers, the imperative is clear: expand affordable, high-quality childcare; implement flexible parental leave; promote family-friendly workplaces; and improve housing affordability. Community-based strategies that engage temples, neighborhoods, and civil society can help rebuild practical support networks for families. Individuals and employers should consider flexible work arrangements and proactive planning for parental responsibilities.
Thai families navigating fertility decisions can benefit from transparent budgeting, awareness of government supports, and active participation in local networks that provide informal childcare and mutual aid. Open conversations with employers about flexible arrangements can help families balance careers and child-rearing.
Long-term demographic stability requires coordinated action across government, communities, and private sectors. Without comprehensive policy responses, aging populations and higher dependency ratios may strain social systems. Thailand has an opportunity to adapt successful family-support models from around the world while honoring Buddhist values of compassion and community.
International experiences show that the most effective approaches combine material supports with strong community networks. Scandinavian-style childcare systems and adaptable policies from aging societies offer useful lessons, tailored to Thai culture and governance. Regional collaboration can accelerate learning while Buddhist principles of mutual care can inform new approaches to family life within modern policy frameworks.
The takeaway for Thailand is urgent and hopeful: recognizing the power of community institutions to support families, and acting to strengthen both economic conditions and cultural dimensions of family life, can help stabilize population dynamics and safeguard intergenerational welfare.
This analysis draws on demographic research, survey data from major institutions, and policy insights from experts in family studies. Data and findings are integrated to reflect both global perspectives and Thai-specific implications.