Europe is seeing a renewed wave of Chinese travellers this summer, driven by strong outbound demand from China and weakening interest in the United States, and analysts are asking whether US policy under President Donald Trump helped redirect that traffic. The European Travel Commission reports a sharp rise in Chinese intent to visit — 72 per cent of Chinese respondents say they planned to travel to Europe for the May–August period — while outlets covering tourism flows say arrivals from China to Europe rose year‑on‑year in early 2025. At the same time, inbound tourism to the US has softened, prompting debate about whether political and trade tensions have discouraged Chinese and other long‑haul visitors from booking American trips and instead pushed them towards European destinations (South China Morning Post: Europe is expecting a wave of Chinese tourists). (European Travel Commission Long‑Haul Travel Barometer 2/2025). (Bloomberg analysis of Chinese travellers and Europe, June 2025).
This shift matters to Thailand because Chinese visitors have historically been the kingdom’s largest single source market and an important engine for spending across hotels, shopping, dining and domestic transport. Any re‑routing of Chinese long‑haul demand — whether caused by geopolitics, visa rules, flight capacity or simple consumer sentiment — will change where Thai tourism authorities should invest promotion, air routes and guest services. The trends also underscore how political decisions in distant capitals can ripple through regional economies that rely on cross‑border travel and cultural exchange (European Travel Commission LHTB 2/2025). (UNWTO World Tourism Barometer May 2025 excerpt on China outbound spending).
European tourism bodies and city managers report a tangible increase on the ground. A senior marketing official at the European Travel Commission said Mandarin is “everywhere” in city centres and that some countries — including Switzerland and several southern European destinations — logged double‑digit year‑on‑year gains in Chinese arrivals for the first half of 2025. These observations line up with the ETC’s survey finding that China is one of the most willing markets to travel long‑haul this summer, with intent markedly above global averages (72 per cent for China versus a global mean closer to 39 per cent) (South China Morning Post). (European Travel Commission LHTB 2/2025).
At the same time, the international tourism landscape shows broader reshuffling. The UN World Tourism Organization’s barometer notes that China reclaimed its position as the world’s top tourism spender in 2024, with outbound expenditures rising strongly (reported outbound spending for China reached about USD 251 billion in 2024). That purchasing power makes China a prize market for destinations worldwide and helps explain why European countries are racing to attract Chinese travellers as global long‑haul intent softens elsewhere (UNWTO World Tourism Barometer excerpt, May 2025). Major travel analysts point out that while Chinese visitors are returning, they often spend differently post‑pandemic — in some markets spending has been lower per capita even as volumes rise — which raises questions for businesses reliant on high per‑person receipts (Bloomberg).
Why blame Mr Trump — or why not? Several trade and tourism analysts link the United States’ weaker inbound figures in 2025 to a combination of factors associated with the current US administration’s policies, including higher tariffs, visible trade tensions, and more restrictive immigration and visa rhetoric. These dynamics coincided with an 11–12 per cent drop in some measures of US inbound visits in the early months of 2025, prompting commentators to say that political signals have dented the US “welcome” factor for non‑Western tourists (Associated Press on US inbound figures, April 2025). Media analyses estimate the US could lose billions in tourism revenue this year versus expectations, and some business groups and economists have explicitly tied part of the drop to the administration’s hard‑line posture toward trading partners, which appears to have affected traveller sentiment (Forbes on Trump policies and tourism impact, July 2025). (The Guardian analysis of tariff and travel sentiment effects, May 2025).
Causation is not undisputed. Tourism decisions respond to many variables: flight connectivity, visa procedures, exchange rates, marketing, safety perceptions and the phasing out of pandemic restrictions. Analysts caution that while political tone matters for image and high‑value travellers, it is difficult to draw a single causal line from policy to rerouted trips without considering these operational and economic factors. The European Travel Commission’s survey itself highlights affordability and geopolitical uncertainty as central short‑term barriers to travel, even as demand from China rises (European Travel Commission LHTB 2/2025).
Expert voices offer competing readings. A senior marketing manager at the European Travel Commission described the on‑the‑ground change in Brussels as unmistakable and optimistic for local businesses. Tourism economists and industry lobbyists in the US have pointed to policy uncertainty and bilateral tensions as contributors to declining inbound numbers. Independent analysts emphasise flight reductions and visa quotas as equally plausible mechanics: when airlines cut routes or seat capacity to a market, travellers often switch destinations that are easier to reach. These contrasting explanations underline the complexity of how geopolitics, market forces and travel logistics combine to shape global flows (South China Morning Post). (Associated Press).
For Thailand the implications are immediate and mixed. Thailand benefited strongly from the China reopening in 2024, with millions of Chinese visits and substantial tourism receipts, but early 2025 data show Chinese arrivals to Thailand lagging expectations. Thai authorities revised some 2025 targets for Chinese arrivals downward amid weaker-than-expected bookings, and private operators reported lower year‑on‑year counts in some months. This was partly because Chinese tourists diversified regionally and because travel patterns shifted away from some traditional gateways toward Europe and intra‑Asia short hops where promotion and connectivity were stronger (Skift on Thailand’s 2025 China arrivals rethink). (The Nation on TAT expectations, 2025).
Culturally, the rebound of Chinese tourism to Europe is notable because it reflects changing preferences among Chinese travellers who increasingly value experiential, long‑stay, and multi‑country itineraries that include museums, heritage sites and slower travel. That aligns with Thailand’s strength in culture, beaches and food, but it also signals tougher competition: European destinations have spent heavily on China‑market marketing, built better Mandarin‑friendly services, and promoted multi‑centre itineraries. Thai operators must therefore sharpen product offering and tailor communications to capture a share of these high‑intent travellers who now consider Europe a strong option (European Travel Commission LHTB 2/2025). (JingDaily on Chinese travel patterns to Europe, June 2025).
Looking ahead, three likely scenarios could shape the next 12–24 months. In the first, political tensions persist in the US while Europe continues targeted outreach, and China’s outbound spending power pushes more tourists to Europe — a medium‑term structural shift that benefits countries with strong cultural, visa and flight connections. In the second, the US changes course or restores more welcoming travel policies and airline capacity rebounds, drawing a share of long‑haul Chinese demand back. In the third, China’s own tourism policy changes, currency moves or a domestic slowdown dampen outbound trips overall, reducing the size of every market’s prize. Each scenario has different implications for Thailand’s recovery and strategy (Forbes analysis; Bloomberg graphics on global travel trends, mid‑2025).
For Thai policymakers and tourism businesses the practical takeaway is clear: diversify, upgrade and partner. Diversification means casting a wider promotional net beyond Chinese leisure travellers by accelerating efforts to grow high‑spending source markets such as India, the Middle East and high‑value European visitors. Upgrading means investing in Mandarin and multilingual services, easing visa procedures where feasible, improving air connectivity with partnership incentives for carriers, and promoting product depth — conservation‑based island experiences, boutique heritage circuits and health and wellness packages that appeal to longer‑stay visitors. Partnership means coordinating TAT, airports, airlines and big hotel groups to schedule peak‑season lift and create itineraries that can compete with Europe’s multi‑centre offers (Skift; The Nation on Thai strategies 2025).
Practical, culturally attuned actions for Thailand include fast‑tracking Mandarin language and hospitality training for frontline staff, expanding digital payment and group‑booking options popular with Chinese travellers, and creating “China‑ready” but authentically Thai cultural experiences that align with Buddhist‑influenced expectations of respect, family orientation and ritual hospitality. Local businesses should also prepare for lower per‑visitor spending by diversifying revenue streams — e.g., experiential add‑ons, culinary classes, and day‑trip cultural tours that retain visitor interest and spread spending across regions beyond Bangkok and Phuket (JingDaily; ETC LHTB 2/2025).
At the policy level, Thailand should use this moment to modernise bilateral and multilateral market access frameworks. Negotiating better air service agreements, streamlining visa processing for high‑value segments, and coordinating marketing with European partners to create complementary rather than purely competitive campaigns could pay dividends. Tourism diplomacy that emphasises Thailand’s safety, cultural warmth and family orientation will resonate with Chinese travellers who value trust and familiarity when choosing long‑haul destinations (European Travel Commission LHTB; UNWTO barometer). (UNWTO World Tourism Barometer excerpt, May 2025).
Finally, businesses should build resilience into planning: monitor global policy signals, track flight capacities, hedge against currency movements, and embrace digital marketing that responds quickly to shifting sentiment. Local communities and cultural custodians should be included in planning so tourism growth remains sustainable and supports local livelihoods — an approach consistent with Buddhist values of moderation and community benefit that many Thai travellers and hosts hold dear.
In short, Europe’s Chinese summer surge is driven by strong Chinese outbound intent and a shifting global travel mix that may have been accelerated by unfriendly signals from some political capitals. Whether one “thanks” President Trump for redirecting a portion of demand depends on the weight given to political signalling versus market and logistical drivers. For Thailand the prudent response is not to wait for the geopolitics to settle, but to act now: sharpen product competitiveness, diversify markets, deepen air‑route partnerships, and deliver Thai hospitality in ways that speak directly to today’s long‑haul Chinese traveller. Those practical steps will ensure Thailand captures its share of outbound demand no matter which direction global flows take next (South China Morning Post). (European Travel Commission LHTB 2/2025). (UNWTO World Tourism Barometer excerpt May 2025).