Southeast Asia’s post‑pandemic tourism rebound has been powerful but patchy, with major markets returning to roughly 80–100 percent of 2019 visitor levels while showing widely different trajectories this year. The six largest destinations — Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines — together received about 114 million international visitors in 2024, roughly 89 percent of 2019 levels, yet patterns since then point to a region recovering unevenly and, in some cases, cooling again (The Diplomat explainer).
Understanding where recovery has stalled and where it is accelerating matters for Thai readers because tourism remains a major export, employer and cultural touchstone in Thailand. Shifts in visitor sources, spending patterns and seasonal flows affect local businesses from Bangkok walkways to island communities, and influence national planning for infrastructure, public health and heritage protection.
Before the pandemic, Southeast Asia’s six largest markets drew more than 127 million foreign tourists in 2019, with Thailand alone nearing 40 million arrivals. That high‑water mark has proven tough to regain. Thailand recorded about 35 million inbound tourists in 2024, a strong headline figure but still short of the pre‑pandemic peak and showing recent weakening that could leave 2025 below last year’s total unless arrivals recover late in the year (The Diplomat explainer; TAT year‑end release).
Key facts and recent developments show the divergence clearly. Vietnam has surged back to near or above its 2019 tally, recording about 17.5 million international visitors in 2024 and showing momentum into 2025 driven by South Korea and China. Indonesia posted a steady rebound with 13.9 million visitors in 2024 and early 2025 growth that suggests modest further gains. Malaysia is nearly back to its 2019 level with roughly 25 million arrivals in 2024, though including day‑trippers pushes the total footfall higher. Singapore recorded 16.5 million arrivals in 2024 and set records in tourism receipts, while the Philippines lags more noticeably with just over 5.4 million inbound visitors in 2024 — about two‑thirds of its 2019 figure (Vietnam National Authority of Tourism; Skift reporting; Indonesia statistics reporting; Reuters on Malaysia; Singapore Tourism Board release; Philippine PSA & reporting, (https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/asia-s-leading-beach-country-welcomes-5-4-million-foreign-visitors-in-2024-4836776.html)).
Experts point to three linked drivers behind the uneven recovery: changing source markets (especially slower return of Chinese travelers), different national strategies (quantity versus quality, visa policies and flight connectivity), and the local capacity to manage rapid visitor growth. Analysts warn that Thailand’s recovery, while headline‑strong, is fragile because traffic from some key sources — notably China — remains well below 2019 levels. Some observers argue Thailand must balance “quality over quantity” ambitions with practical steps to rebuild older source markets and address safety and infrastructure concerns (The Diplomat explainer; Nation Thailand analysis).
Direct expert commentary paints a nuanced picture. A consumer trends and tourism policy analyst warned that 2025 is a turning point and urged a strategic reassessment for Thailand to avoid losing market share. A tourism consultancy co‑founder noted that long‑haul markets from Europe and the Middle East can help, but global economic pressures and flight disruptions make recovery uncertain. Industry leaders based in Thailand emphasised that a “quality” strategy requires ensuring services and experiences match higher price points, otherwise premium positioning will not deliver greater revenue (Nation Thailand).
For Thai communities and policymakers the immediate implications are clear. First, a headline number of 35 million tourists masks regional and seasonal weakness: arrivals were down in mid‑2025 compared with the same period in 2024, leaving the country at risk of a flat or declining annual total if no late rebound occurs (The Diplomat explainer; [Reuters reporting on 2025 trend]). Second, dependence on a narrow set of source markets remains risky. China’s pre‑pandemic weight in Thailand’s arrivals — over 11 million Chinese tourists in 2019 — means any sustained shortfall reduces spending across hotels, retail and transport, with knock‑on effects for employment and provincial economies. Third, sudden surges of visitors can strain local resources, while modest, managed growth offers an opportunity to plan for sustainability — an especially salient point for island destinations and heritage sites with limited carrying capacity (The Diplomat explainer; Indonesia BPS reporting).
Thailand’s cultural and economic context makes these choices particularly sensitive. Tourism revenues fund local livelihoods and temples, and many communities rely on repeat seasonal visitors. Buddhist values around community and stewardship can support sustainable planning, but they compete with short‑term commercial pressures to reopen and expand attractions. Policymakers must therefore navigate preserving cultural sites, protecting natural resources and meeting family incomes — all while diversifying markets and improving the safety and quality of tourist experiences.
Historically, Thailand’s rapid rise to a 2019 peak of nearly 40 million visitors reflected open visa policies, growing airline connectivity, and mass tourism models centred on beaches, city shopping and festivals. Those same strengths now require recalibration. For example, the Tourism Authority and ministries have promoted high‑spend segments, sports events and cultural festivals and expanded long‑haul flight routes to Europe and the Americas to offset Chinese shortfalls. Yet experts caution that messaging alone is insufficient; on‑the‑ground service quality, safety perception and seamless entry processes are equally important to secure repeat visits (TAT year‑end release; Nation Thailand analysis).
Looking ahead, several scenario paths are possible across Southeast Asia and for Thailand in particular. If flight connectivity and long‑haul demand strengthen through late 2025, Thailand could stabilise arrivals and meet or slightly exceed 2024 totals. Conversely, sustained weakness in Chinese outbound travel or repeated external shocks — geopolitical friction, regional security incidents or global economic slowdown — could keep 2025 below the hopes of industry planners. For destinations experiencing rapid growth (notably Vietnam), the challenge will be to scale regulation, lodging standards and environmental protections fast enough to avoid overtourism problems that degrade the visitor product and local quality of life (Vietnam tourism data and targets; Skift reporting).
For Thai planners, businesses and provincial officials the practical steps are clear and actionable. Rebuild confidence in safety and service through transparent public reporting, improved first‑responder coordination and visible policing in key tourist nodes. Expand targeted air links and visa facilitation for high‑yield markets while retaining promotional support for second‑tier feeder cities in China and other Asian markets. Invest tourism receipts into local infrastructure — waste management, water supply, public transport and cultural site conservation — to ensure communities benefit and can cope with visitor volumes. Encourage tourism businesses to adopt higher service standards with certification programmes so “quality” offerings truly match their price points, not just their marketing claims (TAT strategy overview; industry commentary in Nation Thailand).
At the same time, Thailand should use the recovery pause to diversify into sustainable, community‑based tourism models that align with local Buddhist values of moderation and communal benefit. Programs that channel a share of visitor spending into temple conservation, community homestays, and coastal rehabilitation resonate with domestic audiences and can create authentic experiences prized by younger tourists. Regional coordination with neighbours on cross‑border rail and green corridors can also capture longer itineraries and spread economic benefits beyond main hubs, reducing pressure on overused sites.
This uneven recovery is a reminder that tourism is not merely a numbers game; it is an interconnected system of source markets, infrastructure, community wellbeing and national image. For Thailand, the path forward requires combining tactical marketing with measurable improvements in safety, service and sustainability. Doing so could convert a headline shortfall into an opportunity to rebuild a tourism sector that is more resilient, higher‑earning and better aligned with Thai social and cultural priorities.
Sources used in this report include regional tourism data, government releases and industry reporting to verify the divergent recovery trends across Southeast Asia (The Diplomat explainer; Tourism Authority of Thailand year‑end release; Vietnam National Authority of Tourism; Skift coverage of Vietnam; Indonesia reporting via Antara; Reuters on Malaysia arrivals; Singapore Tourism Board release; Philippine statistics division and reporting, (https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/asia-s-leading-beach-country-welcomes-5-4-million-foreign-visitors-in-2024-4836776.html); The Diplomat explainer again for regional synthesis).