A major new analysis warns that new international student enrollment could fall by 30–40 percent this fall. The study links the drop to recent visa policy changes and processing disruptions that began in late May (NAFSA report).
The finding matters for Thai students and Thai education partners. Many Thai families and recruitment agents plan fall admissions now.
The study comes from NAFSA and JB International. The groups used SEVIS and State Department visa data for their model (NAFSA report).
NAFSA projects a 30–40 percent drop in new arrivals. The group models a 15 percent fall in total international enrollment if the scenario unfolds (NAFSA report).
The analysis estimates nearly $7 billion in lost spending. The figure includes tuition, housing, and local expenditures tied to students (NAFSA report).
The study predicts more than 60,000 lost jobs across the United States. The jobs count covers direct and indirect positions supported by international students (NAFSA report).
NAFSA also warns about up to 150,000 fewer students arriving this fall. The number assumes visa issuance does not recover in July and August (NAFSA report).
The report points to four drivers for the decline. These drivers include a pause in interviews, vetting changes, limited appointment slots, and travel bans (NAFSA report).
The Department of State paused student visa interviews between May 27 and June 18. The pause came during the peak month for student visa processing (NAFSA report).
When interviews resumed, consulates received guidance to check applicants’ online presence. The guidance asked consular officers to look for “hostile attitudes” and additional security signals (Boston Globe).
NAFSA and JB International found F-1 visa issuance fell 12 percent from January to April 2025. The group also found a 22 percent drop in May compared to May 2024 (NAFSA report).
NAFSA cautioned that June data could show an 80–90 percent fall. The caution reflects the historically heavy visa volume in June and July (NAFSA report).
The report shows limited or no appointments in key countries. The countries listed include India, China, Nigeria, and Japan (NAFSA report).
India and China supply the largest numbers of students to the United States. Open Doors 2024 lists India with about 332,000 students and China with about 277,000 students in 2023–24 (Open Doors 2024).
The timing of the policy moves worsens the impact. The May pause overlapped the months when students accept offers and finalize travel plans (Boston Globe).
Colleges report growing uncertainty in financial planning. University leaders say the projected losses complicate budgets for tuition, housing, and programs (Boston Globe).
An academic who studies higher education finance described the projections as alarming. The expert said administrators cannot easily forecast revenue when visa outcomes remain uncertain (Boston Globe).
NAFSA called on the State Department to expedite student visa appointments. The organization also urged exemptions for students from recent travel restrictions (NAFSA report).
NAFSA’s executive director warned of threats to US innovation and competitiveness. The director said international students play a major role in research and industry partnerships (Boston Globe).
US business leaders also expressed concern. Many companies hire international graduates from US campuses for skilled roles and research work (Boston Globe).
The study assigns state-level financial losses. California and New York face losses exceeding $1 billion each under the scenario (Forbes summary).
Massachusetts also stands to lose hundreds of millions. The state has a high share of international students, with some universities heavily reliant on that revenue (Boston Globe).
Some economists say the study understates long-term harm. They argue the analysis focuses on local spending and not broader economic growth effects (Boston Globe).
One economics professor said fewer international students will reduce local innovation. The professor noted that lost ideas and startups lower long-term income growth (Boston Globe).
The policy changes include travel restrictions on certain countries. NAFSA notes a June 4 executive order that listed 19 countries under new entry limits (NAFSA report).
NAFSA estimates the travel bans threaten about $3 billion in contributions. The figure refers to annual economic contributions tied to students from the affected countries (NAFSA report).
The disruptions have altered student sentiment about the United States. Surveys and enrollment trends show lower interest in the US as a destination since the policy moves (Boston Globe).
Many prospective students now prefer other English-speaking countries. The alternatives include the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand (Boston Globe).
Some sending governments redirected applicants away from the US. For example, Malaysia rerouted 131 students to other countries deemed more stable (Boston Globe).
The Open Doors report recorded an all-time high of 1.126 million international students in 2023–24. The figure provides context to the potential scale of any enrollment reversal (Open Doors 2024).
International students represented about 6 percent of US college enrollment in 2023–24. The share highlights how integrated foreign students became after the pandemic recovery (Open Doors 2024).
India supplied the largest number of students in 2023–24. India ranked first with about 332,000 students in US higher education (Open Doors 2024).
China remained the second-largest source. China supplied about 277,000 students in the same year (Open Doors 2024).
Thailand sent several thousand students to the United States in recent years. Open Doors regional fact sheets list Thailand with roughly 5,300 to 5,400 students in recent counts (Open Doors Asia fact sheet).
Thai families often aim for US undergraduate and graduate programs. Many Thai students plan admissions and visa processes months in advance.
A drop in US enrollments will affect Thai education agents and pathway providers. These organizations counsel and place students in programs abroad.
Thai universities with US partnerships could see fewer inbound exchanges. The changes could reduce joint research and short-term mobility programs.
Some Thai scholarship programs rely on US destinations for placements. A decline in US options may shift scholarships toward other countries.
Thai students who plan to begin study in the fall face practical risks. They risk missing classes if visas arrive late or not at all.
Consulates in Asia reported long wait times for appointments. Students in India and China encountered months-long waits for interviews (NAFSA report).
Even approved visas sometimes arrive slowly in the mail. Delays in document delivery add more travel uncertainty (Boston Globe).
US members of Congress voiced concern about appointment delays in India. Representatives urged the State Department to address visa backlogs for Indian applicants (Boston Globe).
International recruiters and university admissions offices now plan for multiple scenarios. They prepare contingency budgets and online orientation options.
Colleges may offer deferred admission options for affected students. Some institutions allow students to delay entry until spring or next fall.
Universities may increase recruitment from countries with smoother visa pathways. Higher education leaders seek to diversify source countries to reduce risk.
Private sector partners in education and housing will also feel the effects. Rental markets near campuses may see lower demand this academic year.
Local economies in college towns will see less spending from fewer students. Restaurants, stores, and services often rely on student expenditures.
The likely shortfall could hit research funding streams. Graduate international students contribute to lab staffing and grant-driven work.
Industry partnerships that hire international graduates could face talent gaps. Companies may need to adjust hiring plans and relocation strategies.
Some universities provide substantial aid to international undergraduates. Elite institutions sometimes offer scholarships despite most international students paying full fees (Boston Globe analysis).
A Boston Globe analysis found top schools give over $1 billion in scholarships to foreign undergraduates. The support softens financial pressure for some international learners (Boston Globe analysis).
Universities with large international student populations face larger revenue swings. Some campuses derive a large share of tuition from nonresident students.
One US university president said visa delays have been more disruptive than the pandemic. The leader warned that institutional planning cannot absorb such variation (Bangkok Post report).
The Bangkok Post and other outlets reported steep declines in arrivals in July. Student arrivals on visas fell sharply month-on-month, with Asia hit hardest (Bangkok Post).
From Thailand’s perspective, smaller cohorts could mean fewer alumni networks in the US. Alumni networks often support internships and employer links for future cohorts.
Thai study-abroad counselors will need new country comparisons. They will update materials on visa timelines and alternative destinations.
Thai families will face difficult choices about timing and funding. Some families may wait or choose other countries with faster processing.
Study-abroad fairs and agents will highlight visa certainty as a selling point. Countries with stable consular processing may attract more Thai applicants.
The Thai government could respond with guidance and support. Officials may provide counseling and alternative pathways for affected students.
Thai scholarship administrators might reopen funds for non-US destinations. They could shift award letters to the UK, Canada, Australia, or European programs.
Thai universities that send students for exchange may see program pauses. Exchanges depend on reciprocal agreements and incoming numbers.
Thailand’s higher education sector has been growing international partnerships. The sector now faces a possible short-term slowdown in US ties.
If losses materialize, the US higher education landscape may change. Some programs may reduce cohort sizes or consolidate offerings.
Colleges may increase remote or hybrid options for delayed students. Online coursework could help students start programs without immediate travel.
Industry groups will lobby for student visa exceptions. NAFSA and others already urged the State Department to expedite student appointments (NAFSA report).
A practical policy fix would speed appointments. Faster appointments would reduce last-minute defects in enrollment decisions.
Another practical step would exempt F, M, and J visas from certain travel restrictions. NAFSA argued for exemptions while maintaining vetting (NAFSA report).
Universities could expand scholarship offers to retain admitted students. More aid could offset travel and rebooking costs.
Colleges could improve communication with waitlisted students. Clear updates can reduce student uncertainty and loss of commitment.
Thai education agents must advise students to prepare documents early. Students should allow extra time for interviews and mailing.
Students should track appointment availability at their nearest consulate. They should check embassy pages and set alerts for openings.
Families should consider refundable travel bookings and flexible housing contracts. Those steps reduce cancellation losses if visas arrive late.
Students should maintain clean public online profiles. Applicants should review social media and remove problematic content ahead of interviews.
Universities should create clear deferred-enrollment pathways. This option preserves revenue and student relationships.
Thai employers that sponsor study leave should plan contingencies. Employers may adjust timelines if employees start programs later.
Universities and governments could jointly fund bridging programs. These programs help students begin coursework locally until travel is possible.
If visa processing recovers, many of the projected losses could reverse. The NAFSA model depends heavily on outcomes for July and August (NAFSA report).
Stakeholders will watch monthly visa issuance figures closely. The State Department posts regular nonimmigrant visa issuance statistics for monitoring.
Media coverage so far shows growing alarm across sectors. Education leaders, business groups, and lawmakers all expressed concern in recent weeks (Boston Globe; Forbes).
The NAFSA report should prompt action from US agencies. The group framed its report as a call to the State Department to act quickly (NAFSA report).
For Thai readers, the immediate steps are practical. Students should check visa timelines and consider backup plans in other countries.
Thai parents should review scholarship and deferral policies. They should also keep communication lines open with universities.
Education agents should update advising materials and contingency options. Agents should document timelines for clients and maintain transparency.
Thai universities should maintain exchange links and flexible options. They should also support students who cannot travel this fall.
Policy makers in Thailand may track the situation. They may also consider bilateral dialogues about student mobility.
The long-term stakes go beyond one semester. International student flows affect research, labor markets, and bilateral ties.
If numbers fall materially, US universities will need to adapt their business models. The sector may diversify revenue and accelerate global partnerships.
For now, the coming weeks will determine outcomes. Visa issuance in July and August will largely decide whether enrollments recover (NAFSA report).
Thai students still have options for study abroad. They can pursue programs in other English-speaking countries and Europe.
The best practical advice is to prepare early and keep flexible plans. Students and families should document everything and confirm embassy timelines.
Reporters will follow updates from NAFSA, the State Department, and Open Doors. These sources will shape public understanding in the coming month.
This story will evolve as visa data and policy guidance appear. Stakeholders should watch official announcements and university communications.