Reassessing the Global Fertility Question: What Thailand Should Know
A provocative study from Shizuoka University questions whether today’s fertility level is high enough to sustain human populations over the long term. It argues that a global average of 2.1 births per woman—the traditional replacement rate—may not guarantee stability. Instead, the research suggests a higher threshold of about 2.7 births per woman could be necessary. The findings matter for Thailand, where current fertility sits well below that target.
Historically, experts worried about overpopulation as populations exploded—from under 3 billion in 1960 to over 8 billion today. Public health campaigns, contraception access, and shifting social norms reduced fertility dramatically. By 2023, the world’s average had dropped to around 2.3 births per woman. In many Asian countries, including Thailand, this rapid demographic transition was seen as a development success.
