#Demography

A recent Gallup poll reveals a striking tension: American adults say the ideal family size is about 2.7 children, yet the United States is experiencing a sustained decline in births, with the current fertility rate hovering around 1.6 births per woman. In practical terms, many people say they’d like larger families than what they end up having, a gap that researchers are increasingly calling a pinch point shaped by costs, choices, and opportunity.

A recent examination of a long-standing demography myth is stirring conversation among health and policy researchers: life expectancy at birth is not a prophecy about how long you or your family will live. The latest analysis argues that even when national life expectancy was low, many people survived childhood and lived well into old age. For Thai readers, where aging is increasingly a waking policy and family concern, the insight offers a clearer lens for planning health services, pensions, and elder care in a society that values family unity and reverence for the elderly.

A new Gallup poll shows that Americans still prefer families with more than one child, with the average ideal number around 2.7 children. This comes even as the United States’ actual birth rate sits at historic lows, roughly 1.6 children per woman, suggesting a widening gap between what people say they want and the choices available or feasible in daily life. The survey’s finding — that four in five adults still consider at least two children ideal — highlights enduring cultural beliefs about family, alongside real-world constraints like cost of living, housing, and work-life balance.

Groundbreaking demographic research reveals a powerful correlation between America’s declining religiosity and plummeting birth rates, adding crucial cultural dimensions to economic explanations for the nation’s fertility crisis while providing stark warnings for Thailand’s even more severe population challenges. Comprehensive analysis from leading research institutions, including extensive reporting synthesis by major news outlets, detailed demographic studies from the Institute for Family Studies, and new data from the Pew Research Center’s 2023-2024 Religious Landscape Study, demonstrates that highly religious Americans consistently maintain much larger families than their secular counterparts, while the growing population of religiously unaffiliated individuals has dramatically reduced their fertility to levels comparable with the world’s lowest-birth-rate societies. The fertility gap between religious and secular Americans has widened significantly over recent decades, with researchers calculating that virtually the entire decline in U.S. fertility from 2012 to 2019 can be attributed to growing irreligion combined with the exceptionally low birth rates among non-religious populations. Most critically for Thai readers, these findings illuminate how cultural and spiritual institutions provide essential social scaffolding for family formation—scaffolding that Thailand has been rapidly losing through urbanization, secularization, and changing social values, contributing to the kingdom’s catastrophic fertility decline that now threatens long-term economic stability and intergenerational support systems.

A growing body of demographic research finds a clear association between declining religiosity in the United States and the nation’s falling birth rate, adding a cultural dimension to well-known economic explanations for fewer children. Recent reporting and data syntheses – notably a long-form piece in Newsweek summarizing experts’ views, a detailed demographic analysis posted by the Institute for Family Studies, and new estimates from the Pew Research Center’s 2023–24 Religious Landscape Study – show that Americans who are more religious tend to have larger families, while the religiously unaffiliated have had markedly fewer children in recent decades. At the same time, the number of people who identify as nonreligious has grown, meaning the fertility gap by religion now helps explain a meaningful share of the overall decline in U.S. births. These trends matter to Thailand because Thai fertility has fallen even more rapidly, and understanding cultural as well as economic drivers can help shape policies to stabilise family formation and cushion the social effects of population ageing. See the Pew report here, the Institute for Family Studies analysis here, and the CDC’s 2023 birth data here.

A new wave of demographic research shows a clear connection between rising secularism in the United States and falling birth rates. For Thai readers, the findings offer a crucial caution: cultural and social supports for families matter, and rapid changes in values can accelerate population decline if policy does not respond.

Across several large studies, highly religious Americans tend to have larger families than their secular peers. The share of Americans who identify as religiously unaffiliated has grown steadily, reaching about 29% in recent years. Importantly, women who attend religious services weekly tend to have roughly twice as many children as those who never attend. These patterns help explain much of the drop in national fertility observed since 2012, beyond economic factors alone.

The United Nations has sounded the alarm on an “unprecedented” worldwide decline in fertility rates, with profound consequences already shaping the future of nations like Thailand. The latest United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report signals a tipping point: hundreds of millions of people worldwide are having fewer children than they would like, often citing rising financial pressures and shifting social dynamics as key barriers. For Thailand—a country at the heart of regional demographic shifts—the findings carry urgent weight, offering both fresh validation of local experiences and serving as a catalyst for renewed policy action.

A new UNFPA briefing warns of an unprecedented global drop in fertility rates, with immediate implications for Thailand’s economy, workforce, and social systems. The report notes that hundreds of millions of people are having fewer children than they want, driven largely by economic pressures and evolving social norms. For Thailand, the findings validate local experiences and call for urgent, cross-sector policy action.

The UNFPA cross-country survey polled 14,000 people across 14 countries, including Thailand. It found that almost one in five respondents either have not had the number of children they desire or do not expect to. The main barriers are financial rather than health or biology. About 39% cited prohibitive costs, with responses ranging from 58% in South Korea to 19% in Sweden. A frontline worker in Mumbai was highlighted in coverage by major outlets, illustrating how costs such as schooling, transport, and healthcare can deter family growth even in urban settings.

Sangamon County in central Illinois is facing its first population dip in two centuries. The decline, driven largely by young people and working-age adults leaving, has local leaders racing to find solutions that keep the region vibrant. The County Board Chair highlighted at a chamber of commerce luncheon that roughly 1,000 residents have departed over the past decade. The situation is most evident among ages 5–19 and 35–49, a pattern that contrasts with broader U.S. trends.

Sangamon County, located in central Illinois, is grappling with its first population decline in two centuries—a development that has community leaders sounding the alarm and seeking innovative solutions to reverse the trend. According to recent remarks by the County Board Chair at a chamber of commerce luncheon, the region—best known as the seat of the state capital Springfield—has lost approximately 1,000 residents over the past decade, a decline that is especially pronounced among young people and working-age adults (newschannel20.com).