#Hindsightbias

After every major event—an election result, a surprise business failure, or even a football match—how often do we hear people say, “I knew that would happen”? This feeling of inevitability after the fact is so common that psychologists have given it a name: hindsight bias, or the “knew-it-all-along” phenomenon. Far from being a harmless quirk, hindsight bias shapes how we recall and learn from experience, affects our judgments, and even influences fields as diverse as medicine, law, and policymaking. For Thai readers navigating rapidly changing global events, understanding hindsight bias can help us make more rational decisions and avoid costly mental mistakes.

In every major moment, people rush to judgment with confident certainty. After elections, business setbacks, or sports results, many insist they “knew” the outcome all along. This is hindsight bias, a cognitive trap that shapes how we recall events, judge decisions, and plan for the future. For readers in Thailand facing rapid change, understanding this bias helps us think more clearly and avoid costly mental shortcuts.

Hindsight bias makes us overestimate how predictable a result was after it has happened. It affects memory, judgment of others’ decisions, and future planning. Even seasoned professionals are vulnerable. From executives reviewing failed ventures to doctors reevaluating diagnoses, the sense that the signs were obvious can distort judgment after the fact.