#Kearney

Tourism and travel are rebounding after the seismic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, but researchers warn that new global realities could reshape how Thais and travelers worldwide experience the world—and even how Thais welcome guests to the Kingdom. A recent white paper, jointly released by the World Economic Forum and Kearney, models four dramatically different scenarios for the future of tourism, examining how rising geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, urgent sustainability needs, and rapid digitalization could change the sector by 2030. For a tourism-dependent country such as Thailand, understanding these scenarios is essential for preparing for both risks and opportunities ahead (WEF/Kearney Report).

A joint World Economic Forum and Kearney scenario analysis maps four potential futures for global tourism by 2030, offering crucial strategic guidance for Thailand as it rebuilds after the pandemic. Geopolitics, sustainability, economics, and technology are set to reshape where visitors come from, how they travel, and what they expect from destinations. For a tourism-dependent economy like Thailand, understanding these paths informs policy making, investment, and community planning.

Global tourism is already showing momentum, with international arrivals up five percent in early 2025 and a forecast of rising travel spend through the decade. Yet the operating environment is shifting quickly. Thailand faced sharp declines during the COVID era, underscoring the need for resilient strategies that can adapt to diverse futures while sustaining jobs and regional livelihoods.

The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with leading strategic consulting firm Kearney, has released comprehensive scenario analysis modeling four distinct possibilities for global tourism transformation by 2030, providing crucial strategic intelligence for Thailand’s tourism industry as the Kingdom navigates post-pandemic recovery while positioning for long-term competitiveness within rapidly evolving international travel markets. This authoritative research examines how converging forces including geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, sustainability imperatives, and technological disruption could fundamentally reshape tourism patterns, visitor expectations, and destination competitiveness in ways that demand immediate strategic adaptation by Thailand’s tourism sector leadership. The analysis proves particularly vital for a tourism-dependent economy like Thailand, where international visitor spending traditionally supports millions of jobs and contributes significantly to national economic development, making understanding future scenarios essential for effective policy development and industry investment decisions.