#Populationdecline

The world’s rapidly declining birth rates have ignited a cultural, political, and economic debate that has reached new prominence in 2025. Concerns surrounding fertility decline, its impacts on social structures, and emerging “pronatalist” movements—those actively promoting higher birth rates—have transitioned from quieter academic discussions to mainstream headlines in Thailand and beyond. The issue isn’t simply statistical: it touches on the future of economies, generational care, cultural norms, and even environmental discussions, prompting stakeholders across the globe to rethink whether “more babies” is the solution to looming demographic challenges.

A global shift in birth rates is sparking renewed debate about economy, family, and national resilience in 2025. As fertility declines, people are rethinking social support systems, aging populations, and what “more babies” would require in today’s world. In Thailand, the trend mirrors global patterns but with local nuances that shape policy and everyday life.

Globally, births per 1,000 people have eased to about 17 in 2024, down from around 19.6 in 2012. The causes are multifaceted: higher education and more women in the workforce, economic uncertainty, urban living, and shifting attitudes toward family life. In Thailand, fertility has fallen below replacement levels. Official data indicate that live births dipped to roughly 460,000 in 2025, with the total fertility rate continuing to decline. These numbers point toward an aging society and greater pressure on elder care and public finances.

A striking new wave of research shows worldwide fertility is falling, with millions unable to have the number of children they want. The barriers are largely economic and social rather than a shift in desires. A major survey by UNFPA and other studies indicate that costs of parenting, job insecurity, limited welfare, climate anxiety, and changing cultural priorities are driving birth rates to record lows, including in Thailand.

Thailand’s situation is particularly urgent. Official data for 2024 show annual births dipping below 500,000 for the first time in decades, while the total fertility rate has fallen to 1.0—the lowest in Southeast Asia and lower than Japan’s. Demographers warn that without policy change, the population could shrink from about 66 million to around 40 million in the coming half-century, with significant impacts on the economy and public services.

A dramatic new wave of research suggests global fertility rates are in unprecedented decline, with millions of people around the world struggling to have the number of children they desire—often not because of changing attitudes, but because of mounting social and economic obstacles. Recent studies—including a large survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)—show that in both high- and middle-income countries, including Thailand, the costs of parenthood, job insecurity, insufficient welfare support, environmental anxieties, and evolving cultural priorities are driving birth rates to historic lows Time, BBC, Al Jazeera.

Sangamon County in central Illinois is facing its first population dip in two centuries. The decline, driven largely by young people and working-age adults leaving, has local leaders racing to find solutions that keep the region vibrant. The County Board Chair highlighted at a chamber of commerce luncheon that roughly 1,000 residents have departed over the past decade. The situation is most evident among ages 5–19 and 35–49, a pattern that contrasts with broader U.S. trends.

Sangamon County, located in central Illinois, is grappling with its first population decline in two centuries—a development that has community leaders sounding the alarm and seeking innovative solutions to reverse the trend. According to recent remarks by the County Board Chair at a chamber of commerce luncheon, the region—best known as the seat of the state capital Springfield—has lost approximately 1,000 residents over the past decade, a decline that is especially pronounced among young people and working-age adults (newschannel20.com).

A groundbreaking new study is challenging longstanding demographic wisdom by asserting that humanity’s current fertility rate is now too low to guarantee survival—even if average births per woman meet the historical “replacement” level. The research, led by a Japanese scientist and published in the journal PLOS One, argues that the global average of 2.1 children per woman simply isn’t enough. Instead, it suggests that a fertility rate of 2.7 is the true mark required to ensure humanity’s long-term prospects, a conclusion that carries serious implications for countries like Thailand, where the fertility rate is well below these thresholds.

A provocative study from Shizuoka University questions whether today’s fertility level is high enough to sustain human populations over the long term. It argues that a global average of 2.1 births per woman—the traditional replacement rate—may not guarantee stability. Instead, the research suggests a higher threshold of about 2.7 births per woman could be necessary. The findings matter for Thailand, where current fertility sits well below that target.

Historically, experts worried about overpopulation as populations exploded—from under 3 billion in 1960 to over 8 billion today. Public health campaigns, contraception access, and shifting social norms reduced fertility dramatically. By 2023, the world’s average had dropped to around 2.3 births per woman. In many Asian countries, including Thailand, this rapid demographic transition was seen as a development success.