#PopulationTrends

A new wave of analysis is reshaping how we understand the ongoing drop in birth rates among wealthy nations. The research highlights a complex mix of economic, cultural, and social factors that influence family planning, with implications for public health, education systems, and social cohesion. For Thai readers, the discussion is especially relevant as Thailand faces similar demographic changes.

Across high-income countries, fertility has fallen to historic lows even as global population growth slows. Recent syntheses show total fertility rates dipping well below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman. Countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and several European nations are recording rates around or below 1.2. Projections suggest fertility could continue to trend downward this century, with some forecasts indicating a world rate near 1.8 by 2100, though long-term estimates vary.

A wave of new scientific analysis is redefining how experts understand the ongoing decline in birth rates across wealthy countries, raising deep questions for the future of advanced economies including Thailand. The latest research, profiled in a recent Newsweek lead, points to a complex web of factors fueling the trend, with implications reaching far beyond family size–affecting national prosperity, social cohesion, and public health systems.

Rich nations around the world are witnessing historic lows in fertility, even as overall global population growth begins to plateau. According to authoritative sources such as Wikipedia’s synthesis of worldwide fertility data, the total fertility rate (TFR) in countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Ukraine has dipped to 1.0 or lower, far below the “replacement rate” of approximately 2.1 necessary to maintain population levels. Similar declines are observed in Chile, China, Japan, Malta, Poland, and Spain, with TFR values at or below 1.2 (Wikipedia).