#ThailandDemographics

A new wave of analysis is reshaping how we understand the ongoing drop in birth rates among wealthy nations. The research highlights a complex mix of economic, cultural, and social factors that influence family planning, with implications for public health, education systems, and social cohesion. For Thai readers, the discussion is especially relevant as Thailand faces similar demographic changes.

Across high-income countries, fertility has fallen to historic lows even as global population growth slows. Recent syntheses show total fertility rates dipping well below the replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman. Countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and several European nations are recording rates around or below 1.2. Projections suggest fertility could continue to trend downward this century, with some forecasts indicating a world rate near 1.8 by 2100, though long-term estimates vary.

A wave of new scientific analysis is redefining how experts understand the ongoing decline in birth rates across wealthy countries, raising deep questions for the future of advanced economies including Thailand. The latest research, profiled in a recent Newsweek lead, points to a complex web of factors fueling the trend, with implications reaching far beyond family size–affecting national prosperity, social cohesion, and public health systems.

Rich nations around the world are witnessing historic lows in fertility, even as overall global population growth begins to plateau. According to authoritative sources such as Wikipedia’s synthesis of worldwide fertility data, the total fertility rate (TFR) in countries like South Korea, Taiwan, and Ukraine has dipped to 1.0 or lower, far below the “replacement rate” of approximately 2.1 necessary to maintain population levels. Similar declines are observed in Chile, China, Japan, Malta, Poland, and Spain, with TFR values at or below 1.2 (Wikipedia).

A striking new wave of research shows worldwide fertility is falling, with millions unable to have the number of children they want. The barriers are largely economic and social rather than a shift in desires. A major survey by UNFPA and other studies indicate that costs of parenting, job insecurity, limited welfare, climate anxiety, and changing cultural priorities are driving birth rates to record lows, including in Thailand.

Thailand’s situation is particularly urgent. Official data for 2024 show annual births dipping below 500,000 for the first time in decades, while the total fertility rate has fallen to 1.0—the lowest in Southeast Asia and lower than Japan’s. Demographers warn that without policy change, the population could shrink from about 66 million to around 40 million in the coming half-century, with significant impacts on the economy and public services.

A dramatic new wave of research suggests global fertility rates are in unprecedented decline, with millions of people around the world struggling to have the number of children they desire—often not because of changing attitudes, but because of mounting social and economic obstacles. Recent studies—including a large survey conducted by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)—show that in both high- and middle-income countries, including Thailand, the costs of parenthood, job insecurity, insufficient welfare support, environmental anxieties, and evolving cultural priorities are driving birth rates to historic lows Time, BBC, Al Jazeera.

A generational shift in attitudes toward parenthood among millennials is attracting global attention, with experts debating whether today’s young adults are “childless” by circumstance or proudly “child free” by choice. A recent series of opinion letters in The New York Times highlights the nuanced perspectives within this ongoing discussion, reflecting broader societal changes and raising important questions about the future of family, well-being, and society both in the United States and around the world, including Thailand. In examining the latest research and public debate, it becomes clear that decision-making on children among millennials is far more complex than previously assumed, as economic concerns, cultural values, and social expectations all play pivotal roles (New York Times).

A global conversation about millennial attitudes toward parenthood is intensifying. Experts explore whether today’s young adults are lacking children due to circumstance or are choosing a child-free lifestyle by design. Recent opinion letters in The New York Times reveal nuanced viewpoints that echo broader social transformations affecting families, well-being, and society—from the United States to Thailand. The debate shows that millennial decisions about children are shaped by economics, cultural values, and shifting expectations.